Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions

[EN] The number of new bidders ¿ bidders from whom there is no previous registered participation ¿ is an important variable in most bid tender forecasting models, since the unknown competitive profile of the former strongly limits the predictive accuracy of the latter. Analogously, when a bidder con...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo|||0000-0002-4629-9664, Skitmore, Martin
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2016
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repositorio:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/193239
Acceso en línea:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/193239
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Bidding
Forecasting
Modelling
Multinomial
New bidders
Tendering
PROYECTOS DE INGENIERIA
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spelling Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctionsBallesteros-Pérez, Pablo|||0000-0002-4629-9664Skitmore, MartinBiddingForecastingModellingMultinomialNew biddersTenderingPROYECTOS DE INGENIERIA[EN] The number of new bidders ¿ bidders from whom there is no previous registered participation ¿ is an important variable in most bid tender forecasting models, since the unknown competitive profile of the former strongly limits the predictive accuracy of the latter. Analogously, when a bidder considers entering a bid or when an auctioneer is handling a procurement auction, assessing the likely proportion of experienced bidders is considered an important aspect, as some strategic decisions or even the awarding criteria might differ. However, estimating the number of bidders in a future auction that have not submitted a single bid yet is difficult, since there is no data at all linking their potential participation, an essential requirement for the implementation of any forecasting or estimation method. A practical approach is derived for determining the expected proportion of new bidders to frequent bidders as a function of the population of potential bidders. A multinomial model useful for selective and Open tendering is proposed and its performance is validated with a dataset of actual construction auctions. Final remarks concern the valuable information provided by the model to an enduring unsolved bidding problem and the prospects for new research continuations.Taylor & FrancisDepartamento de Proyectos de IngenieríaEscuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería IndustrialCentro de Investigación en Dirección de Proyectos, Innovación y Sostenibilidad (PRINS)Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet20162016-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/octet-streamhttps://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/193239reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valénciainstname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Reconocimiento - No comercial (by-nc) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:riunet.upv.es:10251/1932392026-06-13T07:49:27Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions
title Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions
spellingShingle Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions
Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo|||0000-0002-4629-9664
Bidding
Forecasting
Modelling
Multinomial
New bidders
Tendering
PROYECTOS DE INGENIERIA
title_short Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions
title_full Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions
title_fullStr Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions
title_sort Estimating the number of new and repeated bidders in construction auctions
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo|||0000-0002-4629-9664
Skitmore, Martin
author Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo|||0000-0002-4629-9664
author_facet Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo|||0000-0002-4629-9664
Skitmore, Martin
author_role author
author2 Skitmore, Martin
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Proyectos de Ingeniería
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Industrial
Centro de Investigación en Dirección de Proyectos, Innovación y Sostenibilidad (PRINS)
Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Bidding
Forecasting
Modelling
Multinomial
New bidders
Tendering
PROYECTOS DE INGENIERIA
topic Bidding
Forecasting
Modelling
Multinomial
New bidders
Tendering
PROYECTOS DE INGENIERIA
description [EN] The number of new bidders ¿ bidders from whom there is no previous registered participation ¿ is an important variable in most bid tender forecasting models, since the unknown competitive profile of the former strongly limits the predictive accuracy of the latter. Analogously, when a bidder considers entering a bid or when an auctioneer is handling a procurement auction, assessing the likely proportion of experienced bidders is considered an important aspect, as some strategic decisions or even the awarding criteria might differ. However, estimating the number of bidders in a future auction that have not submitted a single bid yet is difficult, since there is no data at all linking their potential participation, an essential requirement for the implementation of any forecasting or estimation method. A practical approach is derived for determining the expected proportion of new bidders to frequent bidders as a function of the population of potential bidders. A multinomial model useful for selective and Open tendering is proposed and its performance is validated with a dataset of actual construction auctions. Final remarks concern the valuable information provided by the model to an enduring unsolved bidding problem and the prospects for new research continuations.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016
2016-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/193239
url https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/193239
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reconocimiento - No comercial (by-nc)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reconocimiento - No comercial (by-nc)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/octet-stream
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
instname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
reponame_str RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
collection RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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