The strategic logic of nuclear proliferation. A theoretical approach

Since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, nuclear proliferation has remained a polarizing issue. While some attribute to it a pacifying effect, others, adopting a more pessimistic stance, underscore its catastrophic potential. This article aims to shed light on the study of the strategic...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor: Lahoz Casas, Daniel
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:Perú
Recursos:Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Repositorio:Revistas - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/29029
Acesso em linha:http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/agendainternacional/article/view/29029
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Nuclear proliferation
Strategy
Game theory
Disarmament
International security
Proliferación nuclear
Estrategia
Teoría de juegos
Desarme
Seguridad internacional
Descrição
Resumo:Since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, nuclear proliferation has remained a polarizing issue. While some attribute to it a pacifying effect, others, adopting a more pessimistic stance, underscore its catastrophic potential. This article aims to shed light on the study of the strategic dynamics surrounding this phenomenon by categorizing its key components and exploring the main motivations that push states to obtain nuclear weapons. Since we argue that a state’s likelihood of proliferation is largely determined by the strategic interaction with its adversaries, we employ Game Theory’s models, specifically the “Prisoner’s Dilemma” and the “Deer Hunt”, to discuss the tendencies that may lead towards either a scenario of widespread proliferation or one of coordinated denuclearization.