Relationship between monthly rainfall in NW peru and tropical sea surface temperature
This study assesses the relationship between global sea surface temperature (SST) and a regional index of rainfall (NWPR) in Piura-Tumbes, a coastal region in northwestern Peru, over the period 1965-2008 by means of the Pearson product-moment correlation. The results show that this area is strongly...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Formato: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión aceptada para publicación |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2013 |
| País: | Perú |
| Recursos: | Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú |
| Repositorio: | SENAMHI-Institucional |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe:20.500.12542/99 |
| Acesso em linha: | http://repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe/handle/20.500.12542/99 https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/152875 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/99 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | Rainfall Tropical sea Surface temperature https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09 variabilidad climatica - Clima y Eventos Naturales |
| Resumo: | This study assesses the relationship between global sea surface temperature (SST) and a regional index of rainfall (NWPR) in Piura-Tumbes, a coastal region in northwestern Peru, over the period 1965-2008 by means of the Pearson product-moment correlation. The results show that this area is strongly influenced by three indices: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Niño3.4 region, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the equatorial Atlantic Oscillation (ATL3). In particular, a positive correlation has been found with the two first indices (Niño3.4 and IOD) and a negative one with ATL3 with several months of delay. This allows developing a forecast regression model for monthly rainfall in NW Peru with months in advance. The results show that linear regression model is not enough to provide satisfactory results; however, a nonlinear regression model improves considerably the prediction of rainfall anomalies in NW Peru. |
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