Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports case

This contribution examines the passenger forecasting performance of the SARIMA method applied to cruise activities in the main Spanish ports. In this port system, the cruise activity market is characterized by different seasonal patterns (i.e., once- or twice-yearly peaks, which means unimodal or bi...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Grifoll Colls, Manel|||0000-0003-4260-6732, Sánchez Espigares, Josep Anton|||0000-0001-8195-1913, Feng, Hongxiang
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Recursos:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/343809
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/343809
https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2433
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Transportation -- Passenger traffic
Passenger ships
Bimodal
cruise passengers
forecasting
seasonality
spanish ports
time series
Transport de viatgers
Vaixells de passatge
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Nàutica::Navegació marítima::Transport marítim
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logística
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network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports caseGrifoll Colls, Manel|||0000-0003-4260-6732Sánchez Espigares, Josep Anton|||0000-0001-8195-1913Feng, HongxiangTransportation -- Passenger trafficPassenger shipsBimodalcruise passengersforecastingseasonalityspanish portstime seriesTransport de viatgersVaixells de passatgeÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Nàutica::Navegació marítima::Transport marítimÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logísticaThis contribution examines the passenger forecasting performance of the SARIMA method applied to cruise activities in the main Spanish ports. In this port system, the cruise activity market is characterized by different seasonal patterns (i.e., once- or twice-yearly peaks, which means unimodal or bimodal behavior) due to repositioning strategy. The outcome of standard indicators for accuracy testing reveals inconsistent prediction performances among ports. These inconsistencies are analyzed using an index of bimodality and seasonal variability. The forecasted values for a high-level of bimodality and seasonal variability show worse prediction performances than unimodal patterns and low seasonal variability. Ports with less passenger activity entail larger predictions errors. Exponential and linear models were adjusted between the error metrics and the mentioned indexes.20212021-01-0120212021-04-16journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/343809https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2433reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3438092026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports case
title Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports case
spellingShingle Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports case
Grifoll Colls, Manel|||0000-0003-4260-6732
Transportation -- Passenger traffic
Passenger ships
Bimodal
cruise passengers
forecasting
seasonality
spanish ports
time series
Transport de viatgers
Vaixells de passatge
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Nàutica::Navegació marítima::Transport marítim
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logística
title_short Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports case
title_full Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports case
title_fullStr Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports case
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports case
title_sort Forecasting performance of cruise passengers : the Spanish ports case
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Grifoll Colls, Manel|||0000-0003-4260-6732
Sánchez Espigares, Josep Anton|||0000-0001-8195-1913
Feng, Hongxiang
author Grifoll Colls, Manel|||0000-0003-4260-6732
author_facet Grifoll Colls, Manel|||0000-0003-4260-6732
Sánchez Espigares, Josep Anton|||0000-0001-8195-1913
Feng, Hongxiang
author_role author
author2 Sánchez Espigares, Josep Anton|||0000-0001-8195-1913
Feng, Hongxiang
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Transportation -- Passenger traffic
Passenger ships
Bimodal
cruise passengers
forecasting
seasonality
spanish ports
time series
Transport de viatgers
Vaixells de passatge
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Nàutica::Navegació marítima::Transport marítim
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logística
topic Transportation -- Passenger traffic
Passenger ships
Bimodal
cruise passengers
forecasting
seasonality
spanish ports
time series
Transport de viatgers
Vaixells de passatge
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Nàutica::Navegació marítima::Transport marítim
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Direcció d'operacions::Modelització de transports i logística
description This contribution examines the passenger forecasting performance of the SARIMA method applied to cruise activities in the main Spanish ports. In this port system, the cruise activity market is characterized by different seasonal patterns (i.e., once- or twice-yearly peaks, which means unimodal or bimodal behavior) due to repositioning strategy. The outcome of standard indicators for accuracy testing reveals inconsistent prediction performances among ports. These inconsistencies are analyzed using an index of bimodality and seasonal variability. The forecasted values for a high-level of bimodality and seasonal variability show worse prediction performances than unimodal patterns and low seasonal variability. Ports with less passenger activity entail larger predictions errors. Exponential and linear models were adjusted between the error metrics and the mentioned indexes.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-01-01
2021
2021-04-16
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/343809
https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2433
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/343809
https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2433
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301629

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