Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design

Do voters punish political leaders in the aftermath of a natural disaster? Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, this article explores how floods affect local electoral results in Chile. Taking data from polling stations, our estimations show that floods reduce incumbent candidates’ chances of wi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Livert Aquino, Felipe Bernabé, Gainza Barrencua, Xabier
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Institución:Universidad del País Vasco
Repositorio:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
OAI Identifier:oai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/70368
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10810/70368
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:natural disasters
flooding
local elections
regression discontinuity
Chile
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spelling Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity designLivert Aquino, Felipe BernabéGainza Barrencua, Xabiernatural disastersfloodinglocal electionsregression discontinuityChileDo voters punish political leaders in the aftermath of a natural disaster? Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, this article explores how floods affect local electoral results in Chile. Taking data from polling stations, our estimations show that floods reduce incumbent candidates’ chances of winning in affected polling stations in a range from 11.3% to 22%, depending on the bandwidth considered. It also follows from our results that the greater the electoral competition, the greater the probability of losing the next race. The paper explores the electoral mechanism and finds that turnout is significantly lower in affected areas, pointing to voter dissatisfaction as an explanatory factor.This work was supported by the Margarita Salas, Ministry of Universities and the European Union, Funded by the European Union-Next Generation EU. In addition, the authors are grateful for the support of the Human Security, Local Human Development and International Cooperation research group of the Basque University System (IT1434-22). International Cooperation of the Basque University System (IT1434-22)Taylor & Francis202420242024info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10810/70368reponame:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigacióninstname:Universidad del País VascoIngléshttps://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2024.2302882info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess(c) 2024 Taylor & Francisoai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/703682026-06-18T09:23:17Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design
title Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design
spellingShingle Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design
Livert Aquino, Felipe Bernabé
natural disasters
flooding
local elections
regression discontinuity
Chile
title_short Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design
title_full Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design
title_fullStr Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design
title_full_unstemmed Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design
title_sort Floods and local incumbency disadvantage: a regression discontinuity design
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Livert Aquino, Felipe Bernabé
Gainza Barrencua, Xabier
author Livert Aquino, Felipe Bernabé
author_facet Livert Aquino, Felipe Bernabé
Gainza Barrencua, Xabier
author_role author
author2 Gainza Barrencua, Xabier
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv natural disasters
flooding
local elections
regression discontinuity
Chile
topic natural disasters
flooding
local elections
regression discontinuity
Chile
description Do voters punish political leaders in the aftermath of a natural disaster? Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, this article explores how floods affect local electoral results in Chile. Taking data from polling stations, our estimations show that floods reduce incumbent candidates’ chances of winning in affected polling stations in a range from 11.3% to 22%, depending on the bandwidth considered. It also follows from our results that the greater the electoral competition, the greater the probability of losing the next race. The paper explores the electoral mechanism and finds that turnout is significantly lower in affected areas, pointing to voter dissatisfaction as an explanatory factor.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2024
2024
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10810/70368
url http://hdl.handle.net/10810/70368
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2024.2302882
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
(c) 2024 Taylor & Francis
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv (c) 2024 Taylor & Francis
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
instname:Universidad del País Vasco
instname_str Universidad del País Vasco
reponame_str Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
collection Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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