High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation

State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2–4, with some attr...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Tramblay, Yves, Reig, Fergus, González-Hidalgo, José C., Potopová, Vera, Beguería, Santiago, García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco, Barriopedro Cepero, David, Garrido Pérez, José Manuel, Brunetti, Michele
Tipo de documento: artigo
Data de publicação:2025
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositório:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglês
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/120143
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/120143
Access Level:Acceso aberto
Palavra-chave:551.51
Atmospheric dynamics
Attribution
Física atmosférica
2508.10 Precipitación
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repository_id_str
spelling High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitationVicente-Serrano, Sergio M.Tramblay, YvesReig, FergusGonzález-Hidalgo, José C.Potopová, VeraBeguería, SantiagoGarcía Herrera, Ricardo FranciscoBarriopedro Cepero, DavidGarrido Pérez, José ManuelBrunetti, Michele551.51Atmospheric dynamicsAttributionFísica atmosférica2508.10 PrecipitaciónState-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2–4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots10.Nature Publishing GroupUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20252025-01-0120252025-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/120143reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1201432026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
title High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
spellingShingle High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.
551.51
Atmospheric dynamics
Attribution
Física atmosférica
2508.10 Precipitación
title_short High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
title_full High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
title_fullStr High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
title_full_unstemmed High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
title_sort High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.
Tramblay, Yves
Reig, Fergus
González-Hidalgo, José C.
Potopová, Vera
Beguería, Santiago
García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
Barriopedro Cepero, David
Garrido Pérez, José Manuel
Brunetti, Michele
author Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.
author_facet Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.
Tramblay, Yves
Reig, Fergus
González-Hidalgo, José C.
Potopová, Vera
Beguería, Santiago
García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
Barriopedro Cepero, David
Garrido Pérez, José Manuel
Brunetti, Michele
author_role author
author2 Tramblay, Yves
Reig, Fergus
González-Hidalgo, José C.
Potopová, Vera
Beguería, Santiago
García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
Barriopedro Cepero, David
Garrido Pérez, José Manuel
Brunetti, Michele
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 551.51
Atmospheric dynamics
Attribution
Física atmosférica
2508.10 Precipitación
topic 551.51
Atmospheric dynamics
Attribution
Física atmosférica
2508.10 Precipitación
description State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2–4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots10.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-01-01
2025
2025-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/120143
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/120143
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,812455

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