Estimating returns and condicional volatility: a comparison between the ARMA-GARCH-M Models and the Backpropagation Neural Network

Econometric models have usually estimated both returns and conditional volatility in financial assets. This paper is intended in the comparison of this traditional approach with the more recent Backpropagation neural network. When applied to the Spanish Ibex-35 stock market index, we find that the n...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Authors: García García, Fernando|||0000-0001-6364-520X, Guijarro, Francisco|||0000-0002-8803-5165, Moya Clemente, Ismael|||0000-0002-1219-1890, Oliver-Muncharaz, Javier|||0000-0001-5317-6489
Format: article
Publication Date:2012
Country:España
Institution:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repository:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/60000
Online Access:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/60000
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Conditional volatility
Backpropagation neural network
GARCH-M
ECONOMIA FINANCIERA Y CONTABILIDAD
Description
Summary:Econometric models have usually estimated both returns and conditional volatility in financial assets. This paper is intended in the comparison of this traditional approach with the more recent Backpropagation neural network. When applied to the Spanish Ibex-35 stock market index, we find that the neural network achieved significantly better performance in predicting conditional volatility, but similar results when predicting financial returns.