Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate change

Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a vector-borne plant bacterium native to the Americas, which causes severe diseases to agricultural crops, ornamental plants and forest trees. The bacterium is becoming a source of worldwide health plant concern and disease outbreaks associated with Xf have occurred outsid...

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Authors: Godefroid, Martín, Cruaud, Astrid, Streito, Jean-Claude, Rasplus, Jean-Yves, Rossi, Jean-Pierre
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2022
Country:España
Institution:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repository:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/281650
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/281650
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Bacterial leaf scorch of shade trees
Invasion risk assessment
Philaenus spumarius
Pierce's disease of grapevine
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spelling Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate changeGodefroid, MartínCruaud, AstridStreito, Jean-ClaudeRasplus, Jean-YvesRossi, Jean-PierreBacterial leaf scorch of shade treesInvasion risk assessmentPhilaenus spumariusPierce's disease of grapevinePierce's disease of grapevineXylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a vector-borne plant bacterium native to the Americas, which causes severe diseases to agricultural crops, ornamental plants and forest trees. The bacterium is becoming a source of worldwide health plant concern and disease outbreaks associated with Xf have occurred outside of its native range (in Europe, Asia and the Middle East). Several studies have estimated risks associated with Xf outbreaks in invaded regions under current climate conditions, but future climate change has been seldom addressed. In the present study, we calibrated correlative models of bioclimatic species distribution to forecast the potential range and severity of two economically important Xf-related diseases (Pierce's disease and the bacterial leaf scorch of shade trees) by the period 2040–2060. Models predict that conditions could become highly favourable for Pierce's disease in economically important wine-producing regions of the world, highlighting the need to design control strategies. Similarly, models suggest that risk of bacterial leaf scorch of shade trees might increase in temperate regions where it is still apparently absent. However, we note that substantial uncertainty in predictions arises from high levels of correlation among climatic variables in the calibration data set. The inherent lack of knowledge concerning whether the distribution of Xf-related diseases is at climatic equilibrium or not in Europe may also influence our predictions. The models provide valuable information to identify regions where increased surveillance efforts should be made and where control strategies are required.This work was funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 727987 XF-ACTORS and the Plant health department of the INRAE (French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment).Peer reviewedBritish Society for Plant PathologyEuropean CommissionAgence Nationale de la Recherche (France)Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202220222022info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/281650reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727987https://doi.org/10.1111/ppa.13637Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/2816502026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate change
title Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate change
spellingShingle Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate change
Godefroid, Martín
Bacterial leaf scorch of shade trees
Invasion risk assessment
Philaenus spumarius
Pierce's disease of grapevine
Pierce's disease of grapevine
title_short Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate change
title_full Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate change
title_fullStr Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate change
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate change
title_sort Forecasting future range shifts of Xylella fastidiosa under climate change
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Godefroid, Martín
Cruaud, Astrid
Streito, Jean-Claude
Rasplus, Jean-Yves
Rossi, Jean-Pierre
author Godefroid, Martín
author_facet Godefroid, Martín
Cruaud, Astrid
Streito, Jean-Claude
Rasplus, Jean-Yves
Rossi, Jean-Pierre
author_role author
author2 Cruaud, Astrid
Streito, Jean-Claude
Rasplus, Jean-Yves
Rossi, Jean-Pierre
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv European Commission
Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France)
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Bacterial leaf scorch of shade trees
Invasion risk assessment
Philaenus spumarius
Pierce's disease of grapevine
Pierce's disease of grapevine
topic Bacterial leaf scorch of shade trees
Invasion risk assessment
Philaenus spumarius
Pierce's disease of grapevine
Pierce's disease of grapevine
description Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a vector-borne plant bacterium native to the Americas, which causes severe diseases to agricultural crops, ornamental plants and forest trees. The bacterium is becoming a source of worldwide health plant concern and disease outbreaks associated with Xf have occurred outside of its native range (in Europe, Asia and the Middle East). Several studies have estimated risks associated with Xf outbreaks in invaded regions under current climate conditions, but future climate change has been seldom addressed. In the present study, we calibrated correlative models of bioclimatic species distribution to forecast the potential range and severity of two economically important Xf-related diseases (Pierce's disease and the bacterial leaf scorch of shade trees) by the period 2040–2060. Models predict that conditions could become highly favourable for Pierce's disease in economically important wine-producing regions of the world, highlighting the need to design control strategies. Similarly, models suggest that risk of bacterial leaf scorch of shade trees might increase in temperate regions where it is still apparently absent. However, we note that substantial uncertainty in predictions arises from high levels of correlation among climatic variables in the calibration data set. The inherent lack of knowledge concerning whether the distribution of Xf-related diseases is at climatic equilibrium or not in Europe may also influence our predictions. The models provide valuable information to identify regions where increased surveillance efforts should be made and where control strategies are required.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
2022
2022
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/281650
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/281650
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727987
https://doi.org/10.1111/ppa.13637
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv British Society for Plant Pathology
publisher.none.fl_str_mv British Society for Plant Pathology
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
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