Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangements

The potential withdrawal of the United States from European security commitments has raised questions about the future of nuclear deterrence on the continent. This article explores the feasibility of France assuming the role currently played by the United States in the ‘dual-key’ nuclear sharing arr...

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Bibliographic Details
Author: Bardio Vaquero, Nicolás
Format: article
Publication Date:2025
Country:España
Institution:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repository:Docta Complutense
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/125805
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/125805
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:327
deterrence
European strategic autonomy
extended deterrence
French nuclear doctrine
nuclear sharing
Relaciones internacionales
5901 Relaciones Internacionales
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oai_identifier_str oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/125805
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spelling Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangementsBardio Vaquero, Nicolás327deterrenceEuropean strategic autonomyextended deterrenceFrench nuclear doctrinenuclear sharingRelaciones internacionales5901 Relaciones InternacionalesThe potential withdrawal of the United States from European security commitments has raised questions about the future of nuclear deterrence on the continent. This article explores the feasibility of France assuming the role currently played by the United States in the ‘dual-key’ nuclear sharing arrangements with European NATO members. The analysis is divided into five main sections. The article begins by outlining the strategic context in which this analysis takes place, focusing on the potential withdrawal of the United States from European security commitments and the growing emphasis on the European Union’s strategic autonomy. Against this backdrop, the article first examines France’s technical capabilities to lead a dual-key system in Europe, addressing aspects such as the number of nuclear warheads, delivery vectors, and operational compatibility with European allies. Next, it analyses the political and doctrinal implications of a French-led dual-key system, identifying which aspects of French nuclear doctrine might require revision or could create friction. The article also explores potential forums for nuclear dialogue and coordination, as well as the challenges of harmonising France’s national doctrine with a hypothetical extended framework for dual-key countries. In the third section, the article evaluates the political and security utility of a French-based dual-key system. Finally, it assesses the strategic, operational, and doctrinal implications of shifting from a US nuclear provider to a French one, highlighting both potential benefits and challenges. The findings suggest that, while a French-led dual-key system is technically feasible, significant political obstacles must be overcome for successful implementation.Cambridge University PressUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20252025-10-2820252025-10-28journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/125805reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1258052026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangements
title Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangements
spellingShingle Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangements
Bardio Vaquero, Nicolás
327
deterrence
European strategic autonomy
extended deterrence
French nuclear doctrine
nuclear sharing
Relaciones internacionales
5901 Relaciones Internacionales
title_short Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangements
title_full Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangements
title_fullStr Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangements
title_full_unstemmed Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangements
title_sort Towards a French nuclear umbrella? Assessing the transition from US to French dual-key arrangements
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Bardio Vaquero, Nicolás
author Bardio Vaquero, Nicolás
author_facet Bardio Vaquero, Nicolás
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 327
deterrence
European strategic autonomy
extended deterrence
French nuclear doctrine
nuclear sharing
Relaciones internacionales
5901 Relaciones Internacionales
topic 327
deterrence
European strategic autonomy
extended deterrence
French nuclear doctrine
nuclear sharing
Relaciones internacionales
5901 Relaciones Internacionales
description The potential withdrawal of the United States from European security commitments has raised questions about the future of nuclear deterrence on the continent. This article explores the feasibility of France assuming the role currently played by the United States in the ‘dual-key’ nuclear sharing arrangements with European NATO members. The analysis is divided into five main sections. The article begins by outlining the strategic context in which this analysis takes place, focusing on the potential withdrawal of the United States from European security commitments and the growing emphasis on the European Union’s strategic autonomy. Against this backdrop, the article first examines France’s technical capabilities to lead a dual-key system in Europe, addressing aspects such as the number of nuclear warheads, delivery vectors, and operational compatibility with European allies. Next, it analyses the political and doctrinal implications of a French-led dual-key system, identifying which aspects of French nuclear doctrine might require revision or could create friction. The article also explores potential forums for nuclear dialogue and coordination, as well as the challenges of harmonising France’s national doctrine with a hypothetical extended framework for dual-key countries. In the third section, the article evaluates the political and security utility of a French-based dual-key system. Finally, it assesses the strategic, operational, and doctrinal implications of shifting from a US nuclear provider to a French one, highlighting both potential benefits and challenges. The findings suggest that, while a French-led dual-key system is technically feasible, significant political obstacles must be overcome for successful implementation.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-10-28
2025
2025-10-28
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/125805
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/125805
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,812455

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