A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality
It is widely believed that with the right economic incentives, electrification of transport can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions by 2050. Estimates of future emissions from car transport tend, though, to ignore technological change in electricity generation and bounded rationality of consumers. In...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2018 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona |
| Repositorio: | Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ddd.uab.cat:196628 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://ddd.uab.cat/record/196628 https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.06.006 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Bounded rationality Electric cars Fuel economy Rebound effect Renewable energy |
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A higher rebound effect under bounded rationalityinteractions between car mobility and electricity generationSafarzyńska, KarolinaVan den Bergh, Jeroen|||0000-0003-3415-3083Bounded rationalityElectric carsFuel economyRebound effectRenewable energyIt is widely believed that with the right economic incentives, electrification of transport can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions by 2050. Estimates of future emissions from car transport tend, though, to ignore technological change in electricity generation and bounded rationality of consumers. In this article we address these two shortcomings by developing a novel approach that captures the dynamic interdependence between the car industry and electricity generation. We assess how incorporating realistic behaviors affects estimates of emissions from passengers cars in four models of vehicle adoption, namely with rational, myopic, habit-oriented and loss-aversive consumers. This is then combined with three behavioral models of travel distance, describing rational, habitual and loss-averse drivers. In the electricity sector, technological change occurs through installation of new power plants embodying different energy technologies. This allows us to study the impact of policies promoting renewable energy on the price of electricity, and indirectly on the rate of adoption of electric cars. The findings indicate that substituting renewable energy for fossil fuels in electricity generation by 2050 can triple the electricity price. This undermines the positive effect of subsidies on electric car adoption, with the specific effect depending on particular behaviors assumed to hold. In addition, we show that myopic and loss-averse consumers buy on average less fuel-efficient cars than rational agents. Habitual drivers tend to commute larger distances than rational ones, as they do not adjust their behavior optimally to changes in fuel prices and improvements in fuel efficiencies. These behavioral effects contribute to the rebound effect. Our findings indicate that vehicle choice and driving under rational behavior generate consistently the lowest estimates of life-cycle emissions. By ignoring more realistic behaviors consistent with bounded rationality, current studies underestimate emissions from passenger cars, in turn contributing to overly optimistic expectations about policy impacts. 22018-01-0120182018-01-01Articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://ddd.uab.cat/record/196628https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.06.006reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UABinstname:Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaInglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ddd.uab.cat:1966282026-06-06T12:50:31Z |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality interactions between car mobility and electricity generation |
| title |
A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality |
| spellingShingle |
A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality Safarzyńska, Karolina Bounded rationality Electric cars Fuel economy Rebound effect Renewable energy |
| title_short |
A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality |
| title_full |
A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality |
| title_fullStr |
A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality |
| title_full_unstemmed |
A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality |
| title_sort |
A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Safarzyńska, Karolina Van den Bergh, Jeroen|||0000-0003-3415-3083 |
| author |
Safarzyńska, Karolina |
| author_facet |
Safarzyńska, Karolina Van den Bergh, Jeroen|||0000-0003-3415-3083 |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Van den Bergh, Jeroen|||0000-0003-3415-3083 |
| author2_role |
author |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Bounded rationality Electric cars Fuel economy Rebound effect Renewable energy |
| topic |
Bounded rationality Electric cars Fuel economy Rebound effect Renewable energy |
| description |
It is widely believed that with the right economic incentives, electrification of transport can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions by 2050. Estimates of future emissions from car transport tend, though, to ignore technological change in electricity generation and bounded rationality of consumers. In this article we address these two shortcomings by developing a novel approach that captures the dynamic interdependence between the car industry and electricity generation. We assess how incorporating realistic behaviors affects estimates of emissions from passengers cars in four models of vehicle adoption, namely with rational, myopic, habit-oriented and loss-aversive consumers. This is then combined with three behavioral models of travel distance, describing rational, habitual and loss-averse drivers. In the electricity sector, technological change occurs through installation of new power plants embodying different energy technologies. This allows us to study the impact of policies promoting renewable energy on the price of electricity, and indirectly on the rate of adoption of electric cars. The findings indicate that substituting renewable energy for fossil fuels in electricity generation by 2050 can triple the electricity price. This undermines the positive effect of subsidies on electric car adoption, with the specific effect depending on particular behaviors assumed to hold. In addition, we show that myopic and loss-averse consumers buy on average less fuel-efficient cars than rational agents. Habitual drivers tend to commute larger distances than rational ones, as they do not adjust their behavior optimally to changes in fuel prices and improvements in fuel efficiencies. These behavioral effects contribute to the rebound effect. Our findings indicate that vehicle choice and driving under rational behavior generate consistently the lowest estimates of life-cycle emissions. By ignoring more realistic behaviors consistent with bounded rationality, current studies underestimate emissions from passenger cars, in turn contributing to overly optimistic expectations about policy impacts. |
| publishDate |
2018 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2 2018-01-01 2018 2018-01-01 |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
Article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 AM http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa |
| dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
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article |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
https://ddd.uab.cat/record/196628 https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.06.006 |
| url |
https://ddd.uab.cat/record/196628 https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.06.006 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
Inglés eng |
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Inglés |
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eng |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB instname:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona |
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