Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Mengel, Mathias, Levermann, Anders, Frieler, Katja, Robinson, Alexander, Marzeion, Ben, Winkelmann, Ricarda
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2016
País:España
Recursos:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/129337
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/129337
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Sea level rise
Climate change
Climate impacts
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
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spelling Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitmentMengel, MathiasLevermann, AndersFrieler, KatjaRobinson, AlexanderMarzeion, BenWinkelmann, RicardaSea level riseClimate changeClimate impactshttp://metadata.un.org/sdg/13http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impactsTake urgent action to combat climate change and its impactsSea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.The research leading to these results received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under Grant Agreement 603864; the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Germany (11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS and LDCs); and the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): P25362-N26.Peer reviewedNational Academy of Sciences (U.S.)Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]201620162016info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/129337reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttp://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1500515113Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/1293372026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
title Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
spellingShingle Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
Mengel, Mathias
Sea level rise
Climate change
Climate impacts
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
title_short Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
title_full Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
title_fullStr Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
title_full_unstemmed Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
title_sort Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Mengel, Mathias
Levermann, Anders
Frieler, Katja
Robinson, Alexander
Marzeion, Ben
Winkelmann, Ricarda
author Mengel, Mathias
author_facet Mengel, Mathias
Levermann, Anders
Frieler, Katja
Robinson, Alexander
Marzeion, Ben
Winkelmann, Ricarda
author_role author
author2 Levermann, Anders
Frieler, Katja
Robinson, Alexander
Marzeion, Ben
Winkelmann, Ricarda
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Sea level rise
Climate change
Climate impacts
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
topic Sea level rise
Climate change
Climate impacts
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
description Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016
2016
2016
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/129337
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/129337
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1500515113
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv National Academy of Sciences (U.S.)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv National Academy of Sciences (U.S.)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,812455

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