Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, Spain

Background The risk of infection and death by COVID-19 could be associated with a heterogeneous distribution at a small area level of environmental, socioeconomic and demographic factors. Our objective was to investigate, at a small area level, whether long-term exposure to air pollutants increased...

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Autores: Saez, Marc, Tobías, Aurelio, Barceló, Maria Antònia
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/219601
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/219601
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:COVID-19
Air pollutants
Long-term exposure
Small area
Spatio-temporal models
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spelling Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, SpainSaez, MarcTobías, AurelioBarceló, Maria AntòniaCOVID-19Air pollutantsLong-term exposureSmall areaSpatio-temporal modelsBackground The risk of infection and death by COVID-19 could be associated with a heterogeneous distribution at a small area level of environmental, socioeconomic and demographic factors. Our objective was to investigate, at a small area level, whether long-term exposure to air pollutants increased the risk of COVID-19 incidence and death in Catalonia, Spain, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. Methods We used a mixed longitudinal ecological design with the study population consisting of small areas in Catalonia for the period February 25 to May 16, 2020. We estimated Generalized Linear Mixed models in which we controlled for a wide range of observed and unobserved confounders as well as spatial and temporal dependence. Results We have found that long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and, to a lesser extent, to coarse particles (PM10) have been independent predictors of the spatial spread of COVID-19. For every 1 μm/m3 above the mean the risk of a positive test case increased by 2.7% (95% credibility interval, ICr: 0.8%, 4.7%) for NO2 and 3.0% (95% ICr: -1.4%,7.44%) for PM10. Regions with levels of NO2 exposure in the third and fourth quartile had 28.8% and 35.7% greater risk of a death, respectively, than regions located in the first two quartiles. Conclusion Although it is possible that there are biological mechanisms that explain, at least partially, the association between long-term exposure to air pollutants and COVID-19, we hypothesize that the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia is attributed to the different ease with which some people, the hosts of the virus, have infected others. That facility depends on the heterogeneous distribution at a small area level of variables such as population density, poor housing and the mobility of its residents, for which exposure to pollutants has been a surrogate.Peer reviewedElsevier BVSaez, Marc [0000-0003-1882-0157]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202020202020info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Postprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/219601reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.110177Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/2196012026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, Spain
title Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, Spain
spellingShingle Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, Spain
Saez, Marc
COVID-19
Air pollutants
Long-term exposure
Small area
Spatio-temporal models
title_short Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, Spain
title_full Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, Spain
title_fullStr Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, Spain
title_full_unstemmed Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, Spain
title_sort Effects of long-term exposure to air pollutants on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia, Spain
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Saez, Marc
Tobías, Aurelio
Barceló, Maria Antònia
author Saez, Marc
author_facet Saez, Marc
Tobías, Aurelio
Barceló, Maria Antònia
author_role author
author2 Tobías, Aurelio
Barceló, Maria Antònia
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Saez, Marc [0000-0003-1882-0157]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Air pollutants
Long-term exposure
Small area
Spatio-temporal models
topic COVID-19
Air pollutants
Long-term exposure
Small area
Spatio-temporal models
description Background The risk of infection and death by COVID-19 could be associated with a heterogeneous distribution at a small area level of environmental, socioeconomic and demographic factors. Our objective was to investigate, at a small area level, whether long-term exposure to air pollutants increased the risk of COVID-19 incidence and death in Catalonia, Spain, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. Methods We used a mixed longitudinal ecological design with the study population consisting of small areas in Catalonia for the period February 25 to May 16, 2020. We estimated Generalized Linear Mixed models in which we controlled for a wide range of observed and unobserved confounders as well as spatial and temporal dependence. Results We have found that long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and, to a lesser extent, to coarse particles (PM10) have been independent predictors of the spatial spread of COVID-19. For every 1 μm/m3 above the mean the risk of a positive test case increased by 2.7% (95% credibility interval, ICr: 0.8%, 4.7%) for NO2 and 3.0% (95% ICr: -1.4%,7.44%) for PM10. Regions with levels of NO2 exposure in the third and fourth quartile had 28.8% and 35.7% greater risk of a death, respectively, than regions located in the first two quartiles. Conclusion Although it is possible that there are biological mechanisms that explain, at least partially, the association between long-term exposure to air pollutants and COVID-19, we hypothesize that the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Catalonia is attributed to the different ease with which some people, the hosts of the virus, have infected others. That facility depends on the heterogeneous distribution at a small area level of variables such as population density, poor housing and the mobility of its residents, for which exposure to pollutants has been a surrogate.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020
2020
2020
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Postprint
info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
format article
status_str acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/219601
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/219601
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.110177
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier BV
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier BV
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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