Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood

[Data availability] The following GCM data sets used in this study are available through the CMIP6 repository (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/). ERA5 reanalysis is available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store87 (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6). Meteosat S...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Calvo-Sancho, Carlos, Díaz-Fernández, Javier, González-Alemán, Juan J., Halifa-Marín, Amar, Miglietta, Mario Marcello, Azorín-Molina, César, Prein, Andreas F, Montoro-Mendoza, Ana, Bolgiani, Pedro, Morata, Ana, Martín, María Luisa
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2026
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/424779
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/424779
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105030357453
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Atmospheric dynamics
Attribution
id ES_9946a5dea282da132f0110f3792fc8b3
oai_identifier_str oai:digital.csic.es:10261/424779
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
title Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
spellingShingle Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
Calvo-Sancho, Carlos
Atmospheric dynamics
Attribution
title_short Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
title_full Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
title_fullStr Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
title_full_unstemmed Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
title_sort Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash flood
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Calvo-Sancho, Carlos
Díaz-Fernández, Javier
González-Alemán, Juan J.
Halifa-Marín, Amar
Miglietta, Mario Marcello
Azorín-Molina, César
Prein, Andreas F
Montoro-Mendoza, Ana
Bolgiani, Pedro
Morata, Ana
Martín, María Luisa
author Calvo-Sancho, Carlos
author_facet Calvo-Sancho, Carlos
Díaz-Fernández, Javier
González-Alemán, Juan J.
Halifa-Marín, Amar
Miglietta, Mario Marcello
Azorín-Molina, César
Prein, Andreas F
Montoro-Mendoza, Ana
Bolgiani, Pedro
Morata, Ana
Martín, María Luisa
author_role author
author2 Díaz-Fernández, Javier
González-Alemán, Juan J.
Halifa-Marín, Amar
Miglietta, Mario Marcello
Azorín-Molina, César
Prein, Andreas F
Montoro-Mendoza, Ana
Bolgiani, Pedro
Morata, Ana
Martín, María Luisa
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv European Commission
Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
CSIC - Plataforma Temática Interdisciplinar del CSIC Clima y Servicios Climáticos (PTI Clima)
Calvo-Sancho, Carlos [0000-0003-2457-9793]
González-Alemán, Juan J. [0000-0001-5940-7356]
Miglietta, Mario Marcello [0000-0003-2898-1595]
Azorín-Molina, César [0000-0001-5913-7026]
Bolgiani, Pedro [0000-0002-7096-5831]
Martín, María Luisa [0000-0002-8500-8276]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Atmospheric dynamics
Attribution
topic Atmospheric dynamics
Attribution
description [Data availability] The following GCM data sets used in this study are available through the CMIP6 repository (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/). ERA5 reanalysis is available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store87 (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6). Meteosat Second Generation data is available from the EUMETSAT Store (https://data.eumetsat.int/) and the EUMDAC Python package (https://gitlab.eumetsat.int/eumetlab/data-services/eumdac). Shapefile data used in this work is available from the GADM data (https://gadm.org/download_country.html). PGW increments were performed using PGWERA5 v1.196, which can be downloaded from a Github repository (https://github.com/Potopoles/PGW4ERA5.git). Numerical simulations were performed using WRFV4.5, which can be downloaded from the UCAR Github repository (https://github.com/wrf-model/WRF.git). WRF namelists used to generate all the simulations are available in https://github.com/ccalvosa/dana_vlc_attribution. The analysis and visualization scripts will be available in a Github repository upon a reasonable request to the corresponding author.
publishDate 2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2026
2026
2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/424779
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105030357453
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/424779
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105030357453
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2023-146344OB-I00
The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68929-9
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68929-9
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869414260542537728
spelling Human-induced climate change amplification on storm dynamics in Valencia’s 2024 catastrophic flash floodCalvo-Sancho, CarlosDíaz-Fernández, JavierGonzález-Alemán, Juan J.Halifa-Marín, AmarMiglietta, Mario MarcelloAzorín-Molina, CésarPrein, Andreas FMontoro-Mendoza, AnaBolgiani, PedroMorata, AnaMartín, María LuisaAtmospheric dynamicsAttribution[Data availability] The following GCM data sets used in this study are available through the CMIP6 repository (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/). ERA5 reanalysis is available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store87 (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6). Meteosat Second Generation data is available from the EUMETSAT Store (https://data.eumetsat.int/) and the EUMDAC Python package (https://gitlab.eumetsat.int/eumetlab/data-services/eumdac). Shapefile data used in this work is available from the GADM data (https://gadm.org/download_country.html). PGW increments were performed using PGWERA5 v1.196, which can be downloaded from a Github repository (https://github.com/Potopoles/PGW4ERA5.git). Numerical simulations were performed using WRFV4.5, which can be downloaded from the UCAR Github repository (https://github.com/wrf-model/WRF.git). WRF namelists used to generate all the simulations are available in https://github.com/ccalvosa/dana_vlc_attribution. The analysis and visualization scripts will be available in a Github repository upon a reasonable request to the corresponding author.Global warming alters the hydrological cycle, increasing heavy rainfall events worldwide. In October 2024, Valencia (Spain) experienced rainfall accumulations in a few hours surpassing annual averages (771.8 mm in 16 h in the official weather station at Turís) and breaking the record for one hour rainfall accumulation in Spain (184.6 mm), resulting in 230 fatalities. Here, we present a physical-based attribution study employing a km-scale pseudo-global warming storyline approach to assess the contribution of anthropogenic climate change. We show that present-day conditions led to a 20% °C⁻¹ increase in 1-hour rainfall intensity, exceeding Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This intensification was driven by enhanced atmospheric moisture from warmer sea surface temperatures, leading to increased convective available potential energy, stronger updrafts, and microphysical changes including elevated graupel concentrations. These results demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change could intensify the occurrence of flash-floods in the Western Mediterranean region: in this particular case, it intensified the 6-h rainfall rate by 21%, amplified the area with total rainfall above 180 mm by 55%, and increased the volume of total rain within the Jucar River catchment by 19% compared to the pre-industrial era. This study highlights the urgent need for effective adaptation strategies and improved urban planning to reduce the growing risks of hydrometeorological extremes in a rapidly warming world.This research has been supported by the grant PID2023-146344OB-I00 (CONSCIENCE) funded by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by “ERDF A way of making Europe”, and the ECMWF Special Projects (SPESMART and SPESVALE). This work is supported by the Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute of the Complutense University of Madrid. C.C.-S. acknowledged the grant supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (PRE2020-092343). A.H.-M. is grateful for his MCI/AEI predoctoral contract (FPU18/00824). M.M.M. acknowledges financial support from Next Generation EU, Mission 4, Component 1, CUP B53D23007360006, project “WIND RISK”. C.A-M. acknowledges support from the GVA. PROMETEO Grant CIPROM/2023/38; CSIC-LINCGLOBAL Ref. LINCG24042; and CSIC’s PTI-Clima. We would like to thank Dr. Linda van Garderen and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments to improve this work and for the effort they made to review this manuscript.Peer reviewedNature Publishing GroupEuropean CommissionAgencia Estatal de Investigación (España)Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)Universidad Complutense de MadridCSIC - Plataforma Temática Interdisciplinar del CSIC Clima y Servicios Climáticos (PTI Clima)Calvo-Sancho, Carlos [0000-0003-2457-9793]González-Alemán, Juan J. [0000-0001-5940-7356]Miglietta, Mario Marcello [0000-0003-2898-1595]Azorín-Molina, César [0000-0001-5913-7026]Bolgiani, Pedro [0000-0002-7096-5831]Martín, María Luisa [0000-0002-8500-8276]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202620262026info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/424779https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105030357453reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2023-146344OB-I00The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68929-9https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68929-9Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/4247792026-05-22T06:33:51Z
score 15,812455

Similares en LA Referencia