Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños

12 pages, 4 figures.-- Data availability Annual catch data from FAO major fishing areas are available from the Sea Around Us Project (http://www.seaaroundus.org/data/#/fao). Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) are available from the Met Office Hadley Centre observati...

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Autores: Gómara, Íñigo, Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén, Mohino, Elsa, Losada, Teresa, Polo, Irene, Coll, Marta
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/230501
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/230501
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Pantropical Interactions
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Atlantic Niños
Upwelling
Fisheries
Prediction model
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spelling Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic NiñosGómara, ÍñigoRodríguez-Fonseca, BelénMohino, ElsaLosada, TeresaPolo, IreneColl, MartaPantropical InteractionsEl Niño-Southern OscillationAtlantic NiñosUpwellingFisheriesPrediction model12 pages, 4 figures.-- Data availability Annual catch data from FAO major fishing areas are available from the Sea Around Us Project (http://www.seaaroundus.org/data/#/fao). Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) are available from the Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/). National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data are available from the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL website (https://psl.noaa.gov/). GFDL COBALT and FishMIP simulation data (EcoOcean, BOATS and Macroecological) are accessible through the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node (https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/search/isimip/). Code availabilityS4CAST originally published MATLAB® code is open access and available from the Zenodo repository (doi:10.5281/zenodo.15985) in the URL https://zenodo.org/record/15985. The rest of MATLAB scripts used in this analysis can be made available upon request from the corresponding author (i.gomara@ucm.es). Updated S4CAST versions can be requested to the TROPA-UCM research group (brfonsec@ucm.es)Tropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However, owing to observational data scarcity and bias-related issues in earth system models, little is known about the importance of these precursors for marine ecosystem prediction. With recently released reanalysis-nudged global marine ecosystem simulations, these constraints can be sidestepped, allowing full examination of tropical Pacific ecosystem predictability. By complementing historical fishing records with marine ecosystem model data, we show herein that equatorial Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) constitute a superlative predictability source for tropical Pacific marine yields, which can be forecasted over large-scale areas up to 2 years in advance. A detailed physical-biological mechanism is proposed whereby Atlantic SSTs modulate upwelling of nutrient-rich waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to a bottom-up propagation of the climate-related signal across the marine food web. Our results represent historical and near-future climate conditions and provide a useful springboard for implementing a marine ecosystem prediction system in the tropical PacificThis research was funded by the EU H2020 project TRIATLAS (no. 817578), the Universidad Complutense de Madrid project FEI-EU-19-09 and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness project PRE4CAST (CGL2017-86415-R).With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)Peer reviewedIOP PublishingEuropean CommissionUniversidad Complutense de MadridMinisterio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202120212021info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/230501reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/817578info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/CGL2017-86415-Rhttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfa4dSíinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/2305012026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
title Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
spellingShingle Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
Gómara, Íñigo
Pantropical Interactions
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Atlantic Niños
Upwelling
Fisheries
Prediction model
title_short Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
title_full Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
title_fullStr Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
title_full_unstemmed Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
title_sort Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Gómara, Íñigo
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
Mohino, Elsa
Losada, Teresa
Polo, Irene
Coll, Marta
author Gómara, Íñigo
author_facet Gómara, Íñigo
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
Mohino, Elsa
Losada, Teresa
Polo, Irene
Coll, Marta
author_role author
author2 Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
Mohino, Elsa
Losada, Teresa
Polo, Irene
Coll, Marta
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv European Commission
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)
Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Pantropical Interactions
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Atlantic Niños
Upwelling
Fisheries
Prediction model
topic Pantropical Interactions
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Atlantic Niños
Upwelling
Fisheries
Prediction model
description 12 pages, 4 figures.-- Data availability Annual catch data from FAO major fishing areas are available from the Sea Around Us Project (http://www.seaaroundus.org/data/#/fao). Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) are available from the Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/). National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data are available from the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL website (https://psl.noaa.gov/). GFDL COBALT and FishMIP simulation data (EcoOcean, BOATS and Macroecological) are accessible through the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node (https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/search/isimip/). Code availabilityS4CAST originally published MATLAB® code is open access and available from the Zenodo repository (doi:10.5281/zenodo.15985) in the URL https://zenodo.org/record/15985. The rest of MATLAB scripts used in this analysis can be made available upon request from the corresponding author (i.gomara@ucm.es). Updated S4CAST versions can be requested to the TROPA-UCM research group (brfonsec@ucm.es)
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021
2021
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/230501
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/230501
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/817578
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/CGL2017-86415-R
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfa4d
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
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