Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill

Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state‐of‐the‐art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo|||0000-0001-5375-0639, Ortega, Pablo, Batté, Lauriane, Smith, Doug, Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine|||0000-0002-3066-6685, Guemas, Virginie, Massonnet, François, Sicardi, Valentina|||0000-0002-5116-2670, Torralba, Veronica, Tourigny, Etienne|||0000-0003-4628-1461, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
Format: article
Publication Date:2020
Country:España
Institution:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repository:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/185324
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/185324
https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Forecasting
Precipitation (Meteorology)
Climatology
Sea ice--Arctic Ocean
Atmospheric circulation
Winter climate predictions
Artic Sea ice
Eurasian climate
Atmospheric teleconnections
Large ensembles
Climatologia
Previsió
Circulació atmosfèrica
Temperatura
Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
MODELS
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Prospectiva, sistèmica i modelització
Description
Summary:Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state‐of‐the‐art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice‐atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems.

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