Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion Projections

ABSTRACT:Future projections of coastal erosion, which are one of the most demanded climate services in coastal areas, are mainly developed using top-down approaches. These approaches consist of undertaking a sequence of steps that include selecting emission or concentration scenarios and climate mod...

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Authors: Toimil Silva, Alexandra, Camus, Paula, Losada Rodríguez, Iñigo|||0000-0002-9651-9709, Álvarez Cuesta, Moisés
Format: article
Publication Date:2021
Country:España
Institution:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
Repository:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/23905
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10902/23905
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Multi-ensemble
Probabilistic
Coastal erosion projections
Uncertainty cascade
Climate change
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spelling Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion ProjectionsToimil Silva, AlexandraCamus, PaulaLosada Rodríguez, Iñigo|||0000-0002-9651-9709Álvarez Cuesta, MoisésMulti-ensembleProbabilisticCoastal erosion projectionsUncertainty cascadeClimate changeABSTRACT:Future projections of coastal erosion, which are one of the most demanded climate services in coastal areas, are mainly developed using top-down approaches. These approaches consist of undertaking a sequence of steps that include selecting emission or concentration scenarios and climate models, correcting models bias, applying downscaling methods, and implementing coastal erosion models. The information involved in this modelling chain cascades across steps, and so does related uncertainty, which accumulates in the results. Here, we develop long-term multi-ensemble probabilistic coastal erosion projections following the steps of the top-down approach, factorise, decompose and visualise the uncertainty cascade using real data and analyse the contribution of the uncertainty sources (knowledge-based and intrinsic) to the total uncertainty. We find a multi-modal response in long-term erosion estimates and demonstrate that not sampling internal climate variability?s uncertainty sufficiently could lead to a truncated outcomes range, affecting decision-making. Additionally, the noise arising from internal variability (rare outcomes) appears to be an important part of the full range of results, as it turns out that the most extreme shoreline retreat events occur for the simulated chronologies of climate forcing conditions. We conclude that, to capture the full uncertainty, all sources need to be properly sampled considering the climate-related forcing variables involved, the degree of anthropogenic impact and time horizon targeted.AT acknowledges the financial support from the FENIX Project by the Government of Cantabria. This research was also funded by the Spanish Government via the grant RISKCOADAPT (BIA2017-89401-R).Frontiers MediaUniversidad de Cantabria20212021-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501NAhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10902/23905Frontiers in marine science 2021, 8, 683535reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabriainstname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositorio.unican.es:10902/239052026-06-02T12:39:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion Projections
title Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion Projections
spellingShingle Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion Projections
Toimil Silva, Alexandra
Multi-ensemble
Probabilistic
Coastal erosion projections
Uncertainty cascade
Climate change
title_short Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion Projections
title_full Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion Projections
title_fullStr Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion Projections
title_full_unstemmed Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion Projections
title_sort Visualising the Uncertainty Cascade in Multi-Ensemble Probabilistic Coastal Erosion Projections
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Toimil Silva, Alexandra
Camus, Paula
Losada Rodríguez, Iñigo|||0000-0002-9651-9709
Álvarez Cuesta, Moisés
author Toimil Silva, Alexandra
author_facet Toimil Silva, Alexandra
Camus, Paula
Losada Rodríguez, Iñigo|||0000-0002-9651-9709
Álvarez Cuesta, Moisés
author_role author
author2 Camus, Paula
Losada Rodríguez, Iñigo|||0000-0002-9651-9709
Álvarez Cuesta, Moisés
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Cantabria
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Multi-ensemble
Probabilistic
Coastal erosion projections
Uncertainty cascade
Climate change
topic Multi-ensemble
Probabilistic
Coastal erosion projections
Uncertainty cascade
Climate change
description ABSTRACT:Future projections of coastal erosion, which are one of the most demanded climate services in coastal areas, are mainly developed using top-down approaches. These approaches consist of undertaking a sequence of steps that include selecting emission or concentration scenarios and climate models, correcting models bias, applying downscaling methods, and implementing coastal erosion models. The information involved in this modelling chain cascades across steps, and so does related uncertainty, which accumulates in the results. Here, we develop long-term multi-ensemble probabilistic coastal erosion projections following the steps of the top-down approach, factorise, decompose and visualise the uncertainty cascade using real data and analyse the contribution of the uncertainty sources (knowledge-based and intrinsic) to the total uncertainty. We find a multi-modal response in long-term erosion estimates and demonstrate that not sampling internal climate variability?s uncertainty sufficiently could lead to a truncated outcomes range, affecting decision-making. Additionally, the noise arising from internal variability (rare outcomes) appears to be an important part of the full range of results, as it turns out that the most extreme shoreline retreat events occur for the simulated chronologies of climate forcing conditions. We conclude that, to capture the full uncertainty, all sources need to be properly sampled considering the climate-related forcing variables involved, the degree of anthropogenic impact and time horizon targeted.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
NA
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_be7fb7dd8ff6fe43
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10902/23905
url http://hdl.handle.net/10902/23905
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers in marine science 2021, 8, 683535
reponame:UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
instname:Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
instname_str Universidad de Cantabria (UC)
reponame_str UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
collection UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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