Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin

[EN] Hydroclimatic drought conditions can affect the hydrological services offered by mountain river basins causing severe impacts on the population, becoming a challenge for water resource managers in Andean river basins. This study proposes an integrated methodological framework for assessing the...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Avilés-Añazco, Alex, Pedro Monzonís, María, Solera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963, Paredes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Recursos:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repositorio:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/102323
Acesso em linha:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/102323
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Risk assessment
Probabilistic drought forecasting
Simulation of stochastic scenarios
Water resource systems management
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
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spelling Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basinAvilés-Añazco, AlexPedro Monzonís, MaríaSolera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963Paredes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169Risk assessmentProbabilistic drought forecastingSimulation of stochastic scenariosWater resource systems managementINGENIERIA HIDRAULICA[EN] Hydroclimatic drought conditions can affect the hydrological services offered by mountain river basins causing severe impacts on the population, becoming a challenge for water resource managers in Andean river basins. This study proposes an integrated methodological framework for assessing the risk of failure in water supply, incorporating probabilistic drought forecasts, which assists in making decisions regarding the satisfaction of consumptive, non-consumptive and environmental requirements under water scarcity conditions. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the risk of failure in multiple stochastic scenarios, which incorporate probabilistic forecasts of drought events based on a Markov chains (MC) model using a recently developed drought index (DI). This methodology was tested in the Machángara river basin located in the south of Ecuador. Results were grouped in integrated satisfaction indexes of the system (DSIG). They demonstrated that the incorporation of probabilistic drought forecasts could better target the projections of simulation scenarios, with a view of obtaining realistic situations instead of optimistic projections that would lead to riskier decisions. Moreover, they contribute to more effective results in order to propose multiple alternatives for prevention and/or mitigation under drought conditions.This study was part of the doctoral thesis of Aviles A. at the Technical University of Valencia. This research was funded by the University of Cuenca through its Research Department (DIUC) and the Municipal public enterprise of telecommunications, drinking water, sewage and sanitation of Cuenca (ETAPA) through the projects: BIdentificacion de los procesos hidrometeorologicos que desencadenan inundaciones en la ciudad de Cuenca usando un radar de precipitacion" and "Ciclos meteorologicos y evapotranspiracion a lo largo de una gradiente altitudinal del Parque Nacional Cajas". The authors also thank INAMHI and the CBRM for providing the information for this study. The authors wish to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for its financial support through the ERAS project (CTM2016-77804-P). We thank Angel Vazquez, who helped in the programming of the multiple simulations. Also we thank to the TropiSeca project.Springer-VerlagDepartamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio AmbienteInstituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio AmbienteEscuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y PuertosMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadRepositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet20182018-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/102323reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valénciainstname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)InglésengMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 CTM2016-77804-P ESTIMACION DEL RIESGO AMBIENTAL FRENTE A LAS SEQUIAS Y EL CAMBIO CLIMATICOopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Reserva de todos los derechoshttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:riunet.upv.es:10251/1023232026-06-13T07:49:27Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin
title Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin
spellingShingle Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin
Avilés-Añazco, Alex
Risk assessment
Probabilistic drought forecasting
Simulation of stochastic scenarios
Water resource systems management
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
title_short Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin
title_full Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin
title_fullStr Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin
title_full_unstemmed Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin
title_sort Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Avilés-Añazco, Alex
Pedro Monzonís, María
Solera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963
Paredes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169
author Avilés-Añazco, Alex
author_facet Avilés-Añazco, Alex
Pedro Monzonís, María
Solera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963
Paredes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169
author_role author
author2 Pedro Monzonís, María
Solera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963
Paredes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente
Instituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y Puertos
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Risk assessment
Probabilistic drought forecasting
Simulation of stochastic scenarios
Water resource systems management
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
topic Risk assessment
Probabilistic drought forecasting
Simulation of stochastic scenarios
Water resource systems management
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
description [EN] Hydroclimatic drought conditions can affect the hydrological services offered by mountain river basins causing severe impacts on the population, becoming a challenge for water resource managers in Andean river basins. This study proposes an integrated methodological framework for assessing the risk of failure in water supply, incorporating probabilistic drought forecasts, which assists in making decisions regarding the satisfaction of consumptive, non-consumptive and environmental requirements under water scarcity conditions. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the risk of failure in multiple stochastic scenarios, which incorporate probabilistic forecasts of drought events based on a Markov chains (MC) model using a recently developed drought index (DI). This methodology was tested in the Machángara river basin located in the south of Ecuador. Results were grouped in integrated satisfaction indexes of the system (DSIG). They demonstrated that the incorporation of probabilistic drought forecasts could better target the projections of simulation scenarios, with a view of obtaining realistic situations instead of optimistic projections that would lead to riskier decisions. Moreover, they contribute to more effective results in order to propose multiple alternatives for prevention and/or mitigation under drought conditions.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
2018-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/102323
url https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/102323
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 CTM2016-77804-P ESTIMACION DEL RIESGO AMBIENTAL FRENTE A LAS SEQUIAS Y EL CAMBIO CLIMATICO
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reserva de todos los derechos
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reserva de todos los derechos
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer-Verlag
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer-Verlag
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
instname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
reponame_str RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
collection RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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