A probabilistic approach for off-stream reservoir failure flood hazard assessment

Off-stream reservoirs are hydraulic structures that might cause severe flood damages in case of failure or improper operation. Their safety regulations usually require hydraulic studies for flood hazard and inundation zone mapping. The selection of the break point is not trivial because the topograp...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Sanz Ramos, Marcos|||0000-0003-2534-0039, Bladé i Castellet, Ernest|||0000-0003-1770-3960, Silva Cancino, Nathalia, Salazar, Fernando, López Gómez, David, Martínez Gomariz, Eduardo|||0000-0002-0189-0725
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/400799
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/400799
https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15122202
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Floods
Off-stream reservoir
Statistical analysis
Probabilistic flood mapping
Iber
Inundacions
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Física::Física de fluids
Descripción
Sumario:Off-stream reservoirs are hydraulic structures that might cause severe flood damages in case of failure or improper operation. Their safety regulations usually require hydraulic studies for flood hazard and inundation zone mapping. The selection of the break point is not trivial because the topography in its surroundings is commonly highly anthropic. A wrong selection would not provide the worst scenario in terms of maximum flood hazard extent. This work presents a probabilistic approach based on a stochastic definition of the break point along the dyke. A number of failure scenarios are generated automatically, corresponding to different breach formations. Then, an in-cascade calculation process simulates each scenario, providing a framework to carry out statistical analysis. The simulation of the breach formation and the flood wave propagation is performed through a GPU parallelised two-dimensional hydraulic numerical model, which provides a probabilistic inundation zone and flood hazard mapping of all scenarios simulated in a suitable timeframe