Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project

88 pages, 30 figures, 7 tables, appendices.-- Data and code availability: Code to produce summary data used for the creation of this report and associated code is available here: DOI 10.5281/zenodo.12528168

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Blanchard, Julia L., Novaglio, Camilla, Coll, Marta
Formato: otro
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Recursos:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/365230
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/365230
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
id ES_73401c246f3b0685e81bdd5d567b15b5
oai_identifier_str oai:digital.csic.es:10261/365230
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project
title Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project
spellingShingle Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project
Blanchard, Julia L.
http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
title_short Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project
title_full Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project
title_fullStr Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project
title_full_unstemmed Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project
title_sort Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Blanchard, Julia L.
Novaglio, Camilla
Coll, Marta
author Blanchard, Julia L.
author_facet Blanchard, Julia L.
Novaglio, Camilla
Coll, Marta
author_role author
author2 Novaglio, Camilla
Coll, Marta
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
topic http://metadata.un.org/sdg/13
Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
description 88 pages, 30 figures, 7 tables, appendices.-- Data and code availability: Code to produce summary data used for the creation of this report and associated code is available here: DOI 10.5281/zenodo.12528168
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2024
2024
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/other
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/report
format other
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/365230
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/365230
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cd1379en
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869410795820941312
spelling Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries : Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison ProjectBlanchard, Julia L.Novaglio, CamillaColl, Martahttp://metadata.un.org/sdg/13Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts88 pages, 30 figures, 7 tables, appendices.-- Data and code availability: Code to produce summary data used for the creation of this report and associated code is available here: DOI 10.5281/zenodo.12528168Climate change is posing serious risks to marine ecosystems and the fisheries they support. These rapid changes could undermine the effective fisheries management needed to achieve several of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, as well as FAO’s Blue Transformation vision for a resilient, equitable and sustainable aquatic food systems. Robust model projections are needed to help assess potential threats to fish biomass production associated with future climate change. This report presents projections from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP), an international network of researchers working towards understanding the long-term impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world. Using a state-of-the-art model ensemble, the projections estimate medium- and long-term potential losses and gains in the capacity of the world’s marine ecosystems to produce fish1 biomass. FishMIP’s future projections consider two possible future pathways under contrasting Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios: 1) SSP1-2.6 is a ‘low emissions’ scenario, aiming for net-zero emissions after 2050 and less than 2 °C global atmospheric warming by 2100; and 2) SSP5-8.5 is a ‘high emissions’ scenario with emissions continuing to grow then peaking before the end of the century and leading to over 4 °C of global atmospheric warming by 2100. Results reveal projected losses in fish biomass production in most places. By mid-century, declines > 10 percent are projected for most countries, particularly under the high emissions scenario (Figure 1). Declines continue to worsen towards the end of the century (e.g. > 30 percent in 48 countries and territories) under the high emissions scenario, which projects global warming of 3–4.0 °C. Some of the largest projected biomass declines are for countries that substantially rely on protein supply from aquatic foods (e.g. Solomon Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Portugal, Palau) or are top producers in terms of global marine fisheries production (e.g. China, Peru). End-of-century losses are greatly reduced under the low emissions scenario which projects global warming of 1.5–2 °C; changes stabilize between no change and a decrease of < 10 percent across 178 countries and territories. In a few cases, increases are projected under both scenarios. However, there is very low confidence in the direction of projected change where increases occur. The report further describes how FishMIP-projected changes, and their associated uncertainties, are currently being used to help support a variety of regional vulnerability and risk assessment projects around the globe. FishMIP projections are being used to provide quantitative information for informing a variety of climate change risk and vulnerability assessments, including some case studies. Information is provided on the key uncertainties and limitations of global ecosystem model projections, and on how these limitations are currently being tackled to improve the reliability of modelling outputs. This includes a description of FishMIP 2.0, the next phase of development of this international network which aims to build global capacity for advancing this research. FishMIP 2.0 offers a shared global approach for a wide range of communities and agencies to better understand the state of ecosystems, fisheries, and how to strategically respond to climate change. The report concludes with recommendations for improving the accuracy of climate impact ensemble modelling for marine ecosystems and fisheries, including building capacity through provision of tools and training to enhance capabilities for meeting future policy needs. Among these is the inclusion of aquaculture in ecosystem models, and a combined analysis of land-sea modelling outputs for fully integrated assessments.With the institutional support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S)Peer reviewedFood and Agriculture Organisation of the United NationsAgencia Estatal de Investigación (España)Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202420242024info:eu-repo/semantics/otherhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18ghinfo:eu-repo/semantics/reporthttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/365230reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttps://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cd1379enSíinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3652302026-05-22T06:33:51Z
score 15,198674

Registos relacionados