Forecasting with business and consumer survey data
In a context of growing uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the opinion of businesses and consumers about the expected development of the main variables that affect their activity becomes essential for economic forecasting. In this paper, we review the research carried out in this field, pl...
| Autor: | |
|---|---|
| Formato: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión aceptada para publicación |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2021 |
| País: | España |
| Recursos: | Universidad de Barcelona |
| Repositorio: | Dipòsit Digital de la UB |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/174100 |
| Acesso em linha: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/174100 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | Previsió econòmica Consumidors Previsió dels negocis Economic forecasting Consumers Business forecasting |
| Resumo: | In a context of growing uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the opinion of businesses and consumers about the expected development of the main variables that affect their activity becomes essential for economic forecasting. In this paper, we review the research carried out in this field, placing special emphasis on the recent lines of work focused on the exploitation of the predictive content of economic tendency surveys. The study concludes with an evaluation of the forecasting performance of quarterly unemployment expectations for the euro area, which are obtained by means of machine learning methods. The analysis reveals the potential of new analytical techniques for the analysis of business and consumer surveys for economic forecasting. |
|---|