Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area

This work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. Epi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Singh, David E, Marinescu, Maria-Cristina, Guzmán-Merino, Miguel, Durán, Christian, Delgado-Sanz, Concepcion, Gomez-Barroso, Diana, Carretero, Jesus
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII)
Repositorio:Repisalud
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/13931
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/13931
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Computer Simulation
Social Networking
Algorithms
COVID-19
Cities
Communicable Disease Control
Epidemics
Humans
Masks
Quarantine
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Spain
Travel
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spelling Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan AreaSingh, David EMarinescu, Maria-CristinaGuzmán-Merino, MiguelDurán, ChristianDelgado-Sanz, ConcepcionGomez-Barroso, DianaCarretero, JesusComputer SimulationSocial NetworkingAlgorithmsCOVID-19CitiesCommunicable Disease ControlEpidemicsHumansMasksQuarantineSeroepidemiologic StudiesSpainTravelThis work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. EpiGraph implements a social interaction model, which realistically captures a large number of characteristics of individuals and groups, as well as their individual interconnections, which are extracted from connection patterns in social networks. Besides the epidemiological and social interaction components, it also models people's short and long-distance movements as part of a transportation model. These features, together with the capacity to simulate scenarios with millions of individuals and apply different contention and mitigation measures, gives EpiGraph the potential to reproduce the COVID-19 evolution and study medium-term effects of the virus when applying mitigation methods. EpiGraph, obtains closely aligned infected and death curves related to the first wave in the Madrid metropolitan area, achieving similar seroprevalence values. We also show that selective lockdown for people over 60 would reduce the number of deaths. In addition, evaluate the effect of the use of face masks after the first wave, which shows that the percentage of people that comply with mask use is a crucial factor for mitigating the infection's spread.Frontiers MediaInstituto de Salud Carlos IIIUnión Europea20222022-04-0620212021-01-0120212021-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/13931reponame:Repisaludinstname:Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII)InglésengEuropean Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 801091open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Atribución 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/139312026-06-12T12:43:37Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
title Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
spellingShingle Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
Singh, David E
Computer Simulation
Social Networking
Algorithms
COVID-19
Cities
Communicable Disease Control
Epidemics
Humans
Masks
Quarantine
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Spain
Travel
title_short Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
title_full Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
title_fullStr Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
title_full_unstemmed Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
title_sort Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Singh, David E
Marinescu, Maria-Cristina
Guzmán-Merino, Miguel
Durán, Christian
Delgado-Sanz, Concepcion
Gomez-Barroso, Diana
Carretero, Jesus
author Singh, David E
author_facet Singh, David E
Marinescu, Maria-Cristina
Guzmán-Merino, Miguel
Durán, Christian
Delgado-Sanz, Concepcion
Gomez-Barroso, Diana
Carretero, Jesus
author_role author
author2 Marinescu, Maria-Cristina
Guzmán-Merino, Miguel
Durán, Christian
Delgado-Sanz, Concepcion
Gomez-Barroso, Diana
Carretero, Jesus
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Salud Carlos III
Unión Europea
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Computer Simulation
Social Networking
Algorithms
COVID-19
Cities
Communicable Disease Control
Epidemics
Humans
Masks
Quarantine
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Spain
Travel
topic Computer Simulation
Social Networking
Algorithms
COVID-19
Cities
Communicable Disease Control
Epidemics
Humans
Masks
Quarantine
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Spain
Travel
description This work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. EpiGraph implements a social interaction model, which realistically captures a large number of characteristics of individuals and groups, as well as their individual interconnections, which are extracted from connection patterns in social networks. Besides the epidemiological and social interaction components, it also models people's short and long-distance movements as part of a transportation model. These features, together with the capacity to simulate scenarios with millions of individuals and apply different contention and mitigation measures, gives EpiGraph the potential to reproduce the COVID-19 evolution and study medium-term effects of the virus when applying mitigation methods. EpiGraph, obtains closely aligned infected and death curves related to the first wave in the Madrid metropolitan area, achieving similar seroprevalence values. We also show that selective lockdown for people over 60 would reduce the number of deaths. In addition, evaluate the effect of the use of face masks after the first wave, which shows that the percentage of people that comply with mask use is a crucial factor for mitigating the infection's spread.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-01-01
2021
2021-01-01
2022
2022-04-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/13931
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/13931
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 801091
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución 4.0 Internacional
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución 4.0 Internacional
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repisalud
instname:Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII)
instname_str Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII)
reponame_str Repisalud
collection Repisalud
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,228081

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