Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models

Using observations and model simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively), this study evaluated changes in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation over Bolivia from 1950 to 2019. Results demonstrate that observed precipitati...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Vicente Serrano, Sergio M., Maillard, Oswaldo, Peña-Angulo, Dhais, Domínguez-Castro, Fernando, Noguera, Iván, Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge, Azorín-Molina, César, Juez, Carmelo, Guijarro, José A., Halifa-Marín, Amar, El Kenawy, Ahmed M.
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Recursos:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/339651
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/339651
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Bolivia
CMIP5
CMIP6
Precipitation
Trends
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spelling Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project modelsVicente Serrano, Sergio M.Maillard, OswaldoPeña-Angulo, DhaisDomínguez-Castro, FernandoNoguera, IvánLorenzo-Lacruz, JorgeAzorín-Molina, CésarJuez, CarmeloGuijarro, José A.Halifa-Marín, AmarEl Kenawy, Ahmed M.BoliviaCMIP5CMIP6PrecipitationTrendsUsing observations and model simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively), this study evaluated changes in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation over Bolivia from 1950 to 2019. Results demonstrate that observed precipitation is characterized by strong interannual and decadal variability. However, long-term precipitation trends were not identified on the annual scale. Similarly, changes in seasonal precipitation were almost nonsignificant (p > .05) for the study period. Spatially, albeit with its complex orography, no substantial regional variations in observed precipitation trends can be identified across Bolivia. In contrast, long-term precipitation trends, based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, suggest a dominance of negative trends, mainly during austral winter (JJA) (−10%) and spring (SON) (−15%). These negative trends were more pronounced in the lowlands of Bolivia (−20%). Overall, these contradictory results highlight the need for validating precipitation trend outputs from model simulations, especially in areas of complex topography like Bolivia.European Commission; Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología; Spanish Ministry of Science and FEDER; AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X)-sectorial climate impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation)Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)John Wiley & SonsEuropean CommissionMinisterio de Ciencia y Tecnología (España)Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]2023202320232023info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/339651reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7924Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3396512026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
title Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
spellingShingle Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
Bolivia
CMIP5
CMIP6
Precipitation
Trends
title_short Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
title_full Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
title_fullStr Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
title_sort Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
Maillard, Oswaldo
Peña-Angulo, Dhais
Domínguez-Castro, Fernando
Noguera, Iván
Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge
Azorín-Molina, César
Juez, Carmelo
Guijarro, José A.
Halifa-Marín, Amar
El Kenawy, Ahmed M.
author Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
author_facet Vicente Serrano, Sergio M.
Maillard, Oswaldo
Peña-Angulo, Dhais
Domínguez-Castro, Fernando
Noguera, Iván
Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge
Azorín-Molina, César
Juez, Carmelo
Guijarro, José A.
Halifa-Marín, Amar
El Kenawy, Ahmed M.
author_role author
author2 Maillard, Oswaldo
Peña-Angulo, Dhais
Domínguez-Castro, Fernando
Noguera, Iván
Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge
Azorín-Molina, César
Juez, Carmelo
Guijarro, José A.
Halifa-Marín, Amar
El Kenawy, Ahmed M.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv European Commission
Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología (España)
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Bolivia
CMIP5
CMIP6
Precipitation
Trends
topic Bolivia
CMIP5
CMIP6
Precipitation
Trends
description Using observations and model simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively), this study evaluated changes in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation over Bolivia from 1950 to 2019. Results demonstrate that observed precipitation is characterized by strong interannual and decadal variability. However, long-term precipitation trends were not identified on the annual scale. Similarly, changes in seasonal precipitation were almost nonsignificant (p > .05) for the study period. Spatially, albeit with its complex orography, no substantial regional variations in observed precipitation trends can be identified across Bolivia. In contrast, long-term precipitation trends, based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, suggest a dominance of negative trends, mainly during austral winter (JJA) (−10%) and spring (SON) (−15%). These negative trends were more pronounced in the lowlands of Bolivia (−20%). Overall, these contradictory results highlight the need for validating precipitation trend outputs from model simulations, especially in areas of complex topography like Bolivia.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023
2023
2023
2023
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/339651
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/339651
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7924
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
John Wiley & Sons
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain)
John Wiley & Sons
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,812455

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