Moderate-High Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-Onset Psoriatic Arthritis-Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning

The aim was to identify patient- and disease-related characteristics predicting moderate-to-high disease activity in recent-onset psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We performed a multicenter observational prospective study (2-year follow-up, regular annual visits) in patients aged ?18 years who fulfilled t...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Queiro, R., Seoane-Mato, D., Laiz, A., Galindez Agirregoikoa, E., Montilla, C., Park, H.S., Pinto Tasende, José Antonio, Baute, J.J.B., Joven Ibáñez, B., Toniolo, E., Ramírez, J., Montero, N., Pruenza García-Hinojosa, C., Serrano García, A.
Tipo de documento: artigo
Data de publicação:2023
País:España
Recursos:Servizo Galego de Saúde (SERGAS)
Repositório:RUNA. Repositorio da Consellería de Sanidade e Sergas
OAI Identifier:oai:runa.sergas.gal:20.500.11940/21743
Acesso em linha:https://portalcientifico.sergas.gal//documentos/63f1b97d72e8fb4b23a75b71
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11940/21743
Access Level:Acceso aberto
Palavra-chave:AS A Coruña
INIBIC
Descrição
Resumo:The aim was to identify patient- and disease-related characteristics predicting moderate-to-high disease activity in recent-onset psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We performed a multicenter observational prospective study (2-year follow-up, regular annual visits) in patients aged ?18 years who fulfilled the CASPAR criteria and had less than 2 years since the onset of symptoms. The moderate-to-high activity of PsA was defined as DAPSA > 14. We trained a logistic regression model and random forest-type and XGBoost machine learning algorithms to analyze the association between the outcome measure and the variables selected in the bivariate analysis. The sample comprised 158 patients. At the first follow-up visit, 20.8% of the patients who attended the clinic had a moderate-to-severe disease. This percentage rose to 21.2% on the second visit. The variables predicting moderate-high activity were the PsAID score, tender joint count, level of physical activity, and sex. The mean values of the measures of validity of the machine learning algorithms were all high, especially sensitivity (98%; 95% CI: 86.89-100.00). PsAID was the most important variable in the prediction algorithms, reinforcing the convenience of its inclusion in daily clinical practice. Strategies that focus on the needs of women with PsA should be considered.

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