From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe

Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a basic tool of current conservation practice. However, if not accounted for properly, the uncertainties inherent to PVA predictions can decrease the reliability of this type of analysis. In the present study, we performed a PVA of the whole western Eur...

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Autores: Hernández Matías, Antonio, Real, Joan, Moleón, Marcos, Palma, Luis, Sánchez Zapata, Jose Antonio, Pradel, Roger, Carrete, Martina, Gil Sánchez, Jose María, Beja, Pedro, Balbontín Arenas, Javier
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2013
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/62535
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/11441/62535
https://doi.org/10.1890/12-1248.1
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Bird predator
Birds of prey
Hieraaetus fasciatus
Population viability analysis
Stochastic population dynamics
Spatially structured population
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spelling From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western EuropeHernández Matías, AntonioReal, JoanMoleón, MarcosPalma, LuisSánchez Zapata, Jose AntonioPradel, RogerCarrete, MartinaGil Sánchez, Jose MaríaBeja, PedroBalbontín Arenas, JavierBird predatorBirds of preyHieraaetus fasciatusPopulation viability analysisStochastic population dynamicsSpatially structured populationPopulation viability analysis (PVA) has become a basic tool of current conservation practice. However, if not accounted for properly, the uncertainties inherent to PVA predictions can decrease the reliability of this type of analysis. In the present study, we performed a PVA of the whole western European population (France, Portugal, and Spain) of the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata), in which we thoroughly explored the consequences of uncertainty in population processes and parameters on PVA predictions. First, we estimated key vital rates (survival, fertility, recruitment, and dispersal rates) using monitoring, ringing, and bibliographic data from the period 1990-2009 from 12 populations found throughout the studied geographic range. Second, we evaluated the uncertainty about model structure (i.e., the assumed processes that govern individual fates and population dynamics) by comparing the observed growth rates of the studied populations with model predictions for the same period. Third, using the model structures suggested in the previous step, we assessed the viability of both the local populations and the overall population. Finally, we analyzed the effects of model and parameter uncertainty on PVA predictions. Our results strongly support the idea that all local populations in western Europe belong to a single, spatially structured population operating as a source-sink system, whereby the populations in the south of the Iberian Peninsula act as sources and, thanks to dispersal, sustain all other local populations, which would otherwise decline. Predictions regarding population dynamics varied considerably, and models assuming more constrained dispersal predicted more pessimistic population trends than models assuming greater dispersal. Model predictions accounting for parameter uncertainty revealed a marked increase in the risk of population declines over the next 50 years. Sensitivity analyses indicated that adult and pre-adult survival are the chief vital rates regulating these populations, and thus, the conservation efforts aimed at improving these survival rates should be strengthened in order to guarantee the long-term viability of the European populations of this endangered species. Overall, the study provides a framework for the implementation of multi-site PVAs and highlights the importance of dispersal processes in shaping the population dynamics of long-lived birds distributed across heterogeneous landscapes.Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia CGL200-64805/BOS CGL2010-17056 SAB-2006-0014/RogerWiley-BlackwellZoologíaMinisterio de Educación y Ciencia (MEC). España2013info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11441/62535https://doi.org/10.1890/12-1248.1reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevillainstname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)InglésEcological Monographs, 83 (2), 239-261.CGL200-64805/BOSCGL2010-17056SAB-2006-0014/Rogerhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1890/12-1248.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:idus.us.es:11441/625352026-06-17T12:51:07Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe
title From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe
spellingShingle From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe
Hernández Matías, Antonio
Bird predator
Birds of prey
Hieraaetus fasciatus
Population viability analysis
Stochastic population dynamics
Spatially structured population
title_short From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe
title_full From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe
title_fullStr From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe
title_full_unstemmed From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe
title_sort From local monitoring to a broad-scale viability assessment: a case study for the Bonelli’s Eagle in western Europe
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Hernández Matías, Antonio
Real, Joan
Moleón, Marcos
Palma, Luis
Sánchez Zapata, Jose Antonio
Pradel, Roger
Carrete, Martina
Gil Sánchez, Jose María
Beja, Pedro
Balbontín Arenas, Javier
author Hernández Matías, Antonio
author_facet Hernández Matías, Antonio
Real, Joan
Moleón, Marcos
Palma, Luis
Sánchez Zapata, Jose Antonio
Pradel, Roger
Carrete, Martina
Gil Sánchez, Jose María
Beja, Pedro
Balbontín Arenas, Javier
author_role author
author2 Real, Joan
Moleón, Marcos
Palma, Luis
Sánchez Zapata, Jose Antonio
Pradel, Roger
Carrete, Martina
Gil Sánchez, Jose María
Beja, Pedro
Balbontín Arenas, Javier
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Zoología
Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (MEC). España
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Bird predator
Birds of prey
Hieraaetus fasciatus
Population viability analysis
Stochastic population dynamics
Spatially structured population
topic Bird predator
Birds of prey
Hieraaetus fasciatus
Population viability analysis
Stochastic population dynamics
Spatially structured population
description Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a basic tool of current conservation practice. However, if not accounted for properly, the uncertainties inherent to PVA predictions can decrease the reliability of this type of analysis. In the present study, we performed a PVA of the whole western European population (France, Portugal, and Spain) of the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata), in which we thoroughly explored the consequences of uncertainty in population processes and parameters on PVA predictions. First, we estimated key vital rates (survival, fertility, recruitment, and dispersal rates) using monitoring, ringing, and bibliographic data from the period 1990-2009 from 12 populations found throughout the studied geographic range. Second, we evaluated the uncertainty about model structure (i.e., the assumed processes that govern individual fates and population dynamics) by comparing the observed growth rates of the studied populations with model predictions for the same period. Third, using the model structures suggested in the previous step, we assessed the viability of both the local populations and the overall population. Finally, we analyzed the effects of model and parameter uncertainty on PVA predictions. Our results strongly support the idea that all local populations in western Europe belong to a single, spatially structured population operating as a source-sink system, whereby the populations in the south of the Iberian Peninsula act as sources and, thanks to dispersal, sustain all other local populations, which would otherwise decline. Predictions regarding population dynamics varied considerably, and models assuming more constrained dispersal predicted more pessimistic population trends than models assuming greater dispersal. Model predictions accounting for parameter uncertainty revealed a marked increase in the risk of population declines over the next 50 years. Sensitivity analyses indicated that adult and pre-adult survival are the chief vital rates regulating these populations, and thus, the conservation efforts aimed at improving these survival rates should be strengthened in order to guarantee the long-term viability of the European populations of this endangered species. Overall, the study provides a framework for the implementation of multi-site PVAs and highlights the importance of dispersal processes in shaping the population dynamics of long-lived birds distributed across heterogeneous landscapes.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11441/62535
https://doi.org/10.1890/12-1248.1
url http://hdl.handle.net/11441/62535
https://doi.org/10.1890/12-1248.1
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ecological Monographs, 83 (2), 239-261.
CGL200-64805/BOS
CGL2010-17056
SAB-2006-0014/Roger
http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/12-1248.1
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley-Blackwell
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley-Blackwell
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
instname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
instname_str Universidad de Sevilla (US)
reponame_str idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
collection idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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