Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision trees

Agricultural production in Central South America (CSA) is substantially influenced by frost events. This study charac¬terises and quantifies the physical processes leading to frost conditions in CSA from 1979 to 2022, focusing on three innovative aspects: regional frost properties, a novel multi-par...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Collazo Inglesini, Soledad Maribel, García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/108546
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/108546
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:551.51
Cold temperature extremes
Regionalisation
Machine learning
Upper-level jets
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
2502 Climatología
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oai_identifier_str oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/108546
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spelling Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision treesCollazo Inglesini, Soledad MaribelGarcía Herrera, Ricardo Francisco551.51Cold temperature extremesRegionalisationMachine learningUpper-level jetsFísica atmosférica2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera2502 ClimatologíaAgricultural production in Central South America (CSA) is substantially influenced by frost events. This study charac¬terises and quantifies the physical processes leading to frost conditions in CSA from 1979 to 2022, focusing on three innovative aspects: regional frost properties, a novel multi-parametric upper-level jet description, and the quantification of underlying mechanisms through decision trees (DTs). The regionalisation analysis identifies five homogeneous frost regions in CSA. In all regions, the events tend to occur more frequently during the La Niña phase. Moreover, a significant increase in the frequency of widespread frost events has been observed in the Argentinean Pampas during the study period, primarily due to negative trends in minimum temperatures. Furthermore, the synoptic mechanisms triggering frosts, such as cold fronts and post-frontal anticyclones enhanced by subsidence near the subtropical jet (STJ) entrance, have not shown major long-term changes. To describe the jets, we compute six parameters for the STJ and seven for the polar front jet, including latitude, intensity, height, tilting, longitudinal extent, and branch number. DTs are used to identify key jet parameters linked to frost events, such as the latitude, longitudinal extent, and tilt of the Atlantic STJ. Frost likelihood increases when the STJ is north of 31°S, and the extension of the Atlantic STJ is longer than 35° and has a negative tilt. Finally, DTs focused on the onset and end of events highlight geopotential height anomalies and STJ extension as critical variables. These DTs provide concise and accessible information for agricultural decision-makers in CSA.Springer Int. Pub. AGUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20242024-08-3120242024-08-31journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/108546reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)InglésengEuropean Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 Seventh Framework Programme 4230420open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1085462026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision trees
title Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision trees
spellingShingle Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision trees
Collazo Inglesini, Soledad Maribel
551.51
Cold temperature extremes
Regionalisation
Machine learning
Upper-level jets
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
2502 Climatología
title_short Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision trees
title_full Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision trees
title_fullStr Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision trees
title_full_unstemmed Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision trees
title_sort Variability of winter frosts in Central South America: quantifying mechanisms with decision trees
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Collazo Inglesini, Soledad Maribel
García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
author Collazo Inglesini, Soledad Maribel
author_facet Collazo Inglesini, Soledad Maribel
García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
author_role author
author2 García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 551.51
Cold temperature extremes
Regionalisation
Machine learning
Upper-level jets
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
2502 Climatología
topic 551.51
Cold temperature extremes
Regionalisation
Machine learning
Upper-level jets
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
2502 Climatología
description Agricultural production in Central South America (CSA) is substantially influenced by frost events. This study charac¬terises and quantifies the physical processes leading to frost conditions in CSA from 1979 to 2022, focusing on three innovative aspects: regional frost properties, a novel multi-parametric upper-level jet description, and the quantification of underlying mechanisms through decision trees (DTs). The regionalisation analysis identifies five homogeneous frost regions in CSA. In all regions, the events tend to occur more frequently during the La Niña phase. Moreover, a significant increase in the frequency of widespread frost events has been observed in the Argentinean Pampas during the study period, primarily due to negative trends in minimum temperatures. Furthermore, the synoptic mechanisms triggering frosts, such as cold fronts and post-frontal anticyclones enhanced by subsidence near the subtropical jet (STJ) entrance, have not shown major long-term changes. To describe the jets, we compute six parameters for the STJ and seven for the polar front jet, including latitude, intensity, height, tilting, longitudinal extent, and branch number. DTs are used to identify key jet parameters linked to frost events, such as the latitude, longitudinal extent, and tilt of the Atlantic STJ. Frost likelihood increases when the STJ is north of 31°S, and the extension of the Atlantic STJ is longer than 35° and has a negative tilt. Finally, DTs focused on the onset and end of events highlight geopotential height anomalies and STJ extension as critical variables. These DTs provide concise and accessible information for agricultural decision-makers in CSA.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2024-08-31
2024
2024-08-31
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/108546
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/108546
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 Seventh Framework Programme 4230420
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Int. Pub. AG
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Int. Pub. AG
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.812455

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