The effects of autocratic characteristics on public opinion towards democracy promotion policies: a conjoint analysis

Does the level of public support for democracy promotion policies vary with the characteristics of potential autocratic targets? We conduct an experimental study with a conjoint design on a sample of 1,464 US citizens that manipulates several core characteristics of potential autocratic targets. We...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Escribà-Folch, Abel, Muradova, Lala, Rodon i Casarramona, Antoni
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Repositorio:Repositorio Digital de la UPF
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.upf.edu:10230/52330
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10230/52330
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/fpa/oraa016
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Public opinion
Democracy promotion
Autocratic regimes
Conjoint analysis
Military intervention
Economic sanctions
Democracy assistance
Dictatorship
Descripción
Sumario:Does the level of public support for democracy promotion policies vary with the characteristics of potential autocratic targets? We conduct an experimental study with a conjoint design on a sample of 1,464 US citizens that manipulates several core characteristics of potential autocratic targets. We then compare citizens’ preferences with the cross-national evidence testing the determinants of democracy promotion success. We find that respondents support the use of coercive measures (military action and sanctions) precisely in contexts where, according to comparative research, these instruments are unlikely to foster democratization: oil-rich, exclusionary, personalistic regimes with no elections, and with no ties to the United States. Conversely, the characteristics driving public support for the use of democracy aid are more consistent with those favoring effectiveness: autocratic regimes with multi-party elections and with links to the United States. These findings have important policy implications by contributing to understand the micro-foundations of target selection.