Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited

Nonlinearities and asymmetries of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stratospheric pathway to the North Atlantic and Europe are examined in large ensembles conducted with fully coupled climate models during wintertime. The analysis is centered on historical experiments of the Max Planck Institute G...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Manzini, E., Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca, Calvo Fernández, Natalia, Matei, D.
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/116571
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/116571
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:550.3
climate variability
large ensembles
stratospheric pathways
stratosphere troposphere coupling
tropical extratropical interactions
Geofísica
2507 Geofísica
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spelling Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, RevisitedManzini, E.Ayarzagüena Porras, BlancaCalvo Fernández, NataliaMatei, D.550.3climate variabilitylarge ensemblesstratospheric pathwaysstratosphere troposphere couplingtropical extratropical interactionsGeofísica2507 GeofísicaNonlinearities and asymmetries of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stratospheric pathway to the North Atlantic and Europe are examined in large ensembles conducted with fully coupled climate models during wintertime. The analysis is centered on historical experiments of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE, 95 members) and expanded to six other ensembles of more limited size. In MPI-GE, significant responses are obtained for each ENSO phase and three different intensities (weak, moderate and strong). Overall, linear relationships are found for either El Niño or La Niña key diagnostics that characterize the pathway. These relationships are generally weaker for the cold La Niña than for the warm El Niño so that asymmetries between them develop as the events intensify. Specifically for strong events, the extra-tropical North Pacific and stratospheric responses are asymmetric, with larger responses for El Niño. In addition, the stratospheric asymmetry in strong events seems to contribute to the asymmetry in strong events in the North Atlantic—Europe response in the troposphere in late winter. The extra-tropical North Pacific response shows general agreement between MPI-GE and the other large ensembles. However, this agreement is not as large when other parts of the pathway are compared. Relatively high inter-model response spread confirms the typical model uncertainty found when examining atmospheric circulation responses which include the stratosphere in state-of-the-art climate models.American Geophysical Union (AGU)Universidad Complutense de Madrid20242024-01-1320242024-01-13journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/116571reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1165712026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited
title Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited
spellingShingle Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited
Manzini, E.
550.3
climate variability
large ensembles
stratospheric pathways
stratosphere troposphere coupling
tropical extratropical interactions
Geofísica
2507 Geofísica
title_short Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited
title_full Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited
title_fullStr Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited
title_full_unstemmed Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited
title_sort Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Manzini, E.
Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca
Calvo Fernández, Natalia
Matei, D.
author Manzini, E.
author_facet Manzini, E.
Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca
Calvo Fernández, Natalia
Matei, D.
author_role author
author2 Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca
Calvo Fernández, Natalia
Matei, D.
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 550.3
climate variability
large ensembles
stratospheric pathways
stratosphere troposphere coupling
tropical extratropical interactions
Geofísica
2507 Geofísica
topic 550.3
climate variability
large ensembles
stratospheric pathways
stratosphere troposphere coupling
tropical extratropical interactions
Geofísica
2507 Geofísica
description Nonlinearities and asymmetries of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stratospheric pathway to the North Atlantic and Europe are examined in large ensembles conducted with fully coupled climate models during wintertime. The analysis is centered on historical experiments of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE, 95 members) and expanded to six other ensembles of more limited size. In MPI-GE, significant responses are obtained for each ENSO phase and three different intensities (weak, moderate and strong). Overall, linear relationships are found for either El Niño or La Niña key diagnostics that characterize the pathway. These relationships are generally weaker for the cold La Niña than for the warm El Niño so that asymmetries between them develop as the events intensify. Specifically for strong events, the extra-tropical North Pacific and stratospheric responses are asymmetric, with larger responses for El Niño. In addition, the stratospheric asymmetry in strong events seems to contribute to the asymmetry in strong events in the North Atlantic—Europe response in the troposphere in late winter. The extra-tropical North Pacific response shows general agreement between MPI-GE and the other large ensembles. However, this agreement is not as large when other parts of the pathway are compared. Relatively high inter-model response spread confirms the typical model uncertainty found when examining atmospheric circulation responses which include the stratosphere in state-of-the-art climate models.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2024-01-13
2024
2024-01-13
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/116571
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/116571
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union (AGU)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,198674

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