Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems

Roberts, Kelsey E.; Rohr, Tyler; Raven, Morgan R.; Diamond, Michael S.; Visioni, Daniele; Kravitz, Ben; Heneghan, Ryan F.; Petrik, Colleen M.; Bianchi, Daniele; Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Morrison, Monica A.; Heerden, Vanessa van; Wiseman, Nicola A.; Anil, Gouri; Cannizzo, Zachary J.; Coll, Marta; Coupe, Joshua; Freedman, Ryan; Krumhardt, Kristen; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Luo, Jessica Y.; Olivarez, Holly C.; Robock, Alan; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Harrison, Cheryl S.

Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems

42 pages, 5 figures.-- Data Availability Statement: The climate model data used to generate Figure 3 are freely available from the Climate Data Gateway at NCAR (https://gdex.ucar.edu/) for updated SAI simulations (ARISE-SAI-1.5) and SSP2-4.5 (Richter & Visioni, 2022). Global coral reef boundarie...

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Autores:	Roberts, Kelsey E., Rohr, Tyler, Raven, Morgan R., Diamond, Michael S., Visioni, Daniele, Kravitz, Ben, Heneghan, Ryan F., Petrik, Colleen M., Bianchi, Daniele, Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly, Morrison, Monica A., Heerden, Vanessa van, Wiseman, Nicola A., Anil, Gouri, Cannizzo, Zachary J., Coll, Marta, Coupe, Joshua, Freedman, Ryan, Krumhardt, Kristen, Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lovenduski, Nicole S., Luo, Jessica Y., Olivarez, Holly C., Robock, Alan, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Harrison, Cheryl S.
Formato:	artículo
Estado:	Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:	2026
País:	España
Recursos:	Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:	DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:	oai:dnet:digitalcsic_::91bd43b8e56be8ebd3ecc48835eeb98c
Acesso em linha:	http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431478 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105027392391
Access Level:	acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:	Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

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dc.title.none.fl_str_mv	Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems
title	Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems
spellingShingle	Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems Roberts, Kelsey E. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
title_short	Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems
title_full	Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems
title_fullStr	Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems
title_full_unstemmed	Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems
title_sort	Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv	Roberts, Kelsey E. Rohr, Tyler Raven, Morgan R. Diamond, Michael S. Visioni, Daniele Kravitz, Ben Heneghan, Ryan F. Petrik, Colleen M. Bianchi, Daniele Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Morrison, Monica A. Heerden, Vanessa van Wiseman, Nicola A. Anil, Gouri Cannizzo, Zachary J. Coll, Marta Coupe, Joshua Freedman, Ryan Krumhardt, Kristen Kwiatkowski, Lester Lovenduski, Nicole S. Luo, Jessica Y. Olivarez, Holly C. Robock, Alan Steenbeek, Jeroen Harrison, Cheryl S.
author	Roberts, Kelsey E.
author_facet	Roberts, Kelsey E. Rohr, Tyler Raven, Morgan R. Diamond, Michael S. Visioni, Daniele Kravitz, Ben Heneghan, Ryan F. Petrik, Colleen M. Bianchi, Daniele Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Morrison, Monica A. Heerden, Vanessa van Wiseman, Nicola A. Anil, Gouri Cannizzo, Zachary J. Coll, Marta Coupe, Joshua Freedman, Ryan Krumhardt, Kristen Kwiatkowski, Lester Lovenduski, Nicole S. Luo, Jessica Y. Olivarez, Holly C. Robock, Alan Steenbeek, Jeroen Harrison, Cheryl S.
author_role	author
author2	Rohr, Tyler Raven, Morgan R. Diamond, Michael S. Visioni, Daniele Kravitz, Ben Heneghan, Ryan F. Petrik, Colleen M. Bianchi, Daniele Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly Morrison, Monica A. Heerden, Vanessa van Wiseman, Nicola A. Anil, Gouri Cannizzo, Zachary J. Coll, Marta Coupe, Joshua Freedman, Ryan Krumhardt, Kristen Kwiatkowski, Lester Lovenduski, Nicole S. Luo, Jessica Y. Olivarez, Holly C. Robock, Alan Steenbeek, Jeroen Harrison, Cheryl S.
author2_role	author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv	Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US) Indiana University Australian Government Grantham Foundation Schmidt Sciences Quadrature Climate Foundation Department of Energy (US) National Science Foundation (US) Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) European Commission 0000-0001-8422-632X 0000-0001-6599-8068 0000-0003-4953-9966 0000-0003-2147-5921 0000-0002-7342-2189 0000-0001-6318-1150 0000-0003-3253-0455 0000-0002-6621-0858 0000-0002-4228-8247 0000-0002-1182-2849 0000-0001-9296-7566 0000-0002-0814-7555 0000-0002-8652-9970 0000-0002-8951-2787 0000-0002-8980-056X 0000-0002-6769-5957 0000-0001-5893-1009 0000-0002-0032-9370 0000-0002-8994-7967 0000-0002-6319-5656 0000-0002-7878-8075 0000-0003-4544-947X
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv	Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
topic	Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
description	42 pages, 5 figures.-- Data Availability Statement: The climate model data used to generate Figure 3 are freely available from the Climate Data Gateway at NCAR (https://gdex.ucar.edu/) for updated SAI simulations (ARISE-SAI-1.5) and SSP2-4.5 (Richter & Visioni, 2022). Global coral reef boundaries displayed on Figure 3 are also freely available from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP-WCMC et al., 2021) and can be accessed through the UNEP-WCMC GIS portal
publishDate	2026
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv	2026 2026 2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/article Publisher's version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format	article
status_str	publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv	http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431478 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105027392391
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10261/431478 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105027392391
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv	Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv	Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv	#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-118097RB-I00 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101059877 Reviews of Geophysics https://doi.org/10.1029/2024RG000876 Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv	openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv	American Geophysical Union
publisher.none.fl_str_mv	American Geophysical Union
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv	reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str	Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str	DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection	DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
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spelling	Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine EcosystemsRoberts, Kelsey E.Rohr, TylerRaven, Morgan R.Diamond, Michael S.Visioni, DanieleKravitz, BenHeneghan, Ryan F.Petrik, Colleen M.Bianchi, DanieleOrtega-Cisneros, KellyMorrison, Monica A.Heerden, Vanessa vanWiseman, Nicola A.Anil, GouriCannizzo, Zachary J.Coll, MartaCoupe, JoshuaFreedman, RyanKrumhardt, KristenKwiatkowski, LesterLovenduski, Nicole S.Luo, Jessica Y.Olivarez, Holly C.Robock, AlanSteenbeek, JeroenHarrison, Cheryl S.Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development42 pages, 5 figures.-- Data Availability Statement: The climate model data used to generate Figure 3 are freely available from the Climate Data Gateway at NCAR (https://gdex.ucar.edu/) for updated SAI simulations (ARISE-SAI-1.5) and SSP2-4.5 (Richter & Visioni, 2022). Global coral reef boundaries displayed on Figure 3 are also freely available from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP-WCMC et al., 2021) and can be accessed through the UNEP-WCMC GIS portalRising global temperatures pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries. Recent comprehensive assessments suggest that large-scale mitigation efforts to limit warming are falling short, and all feasible future climate projections, including those that represent optimistic emissions reductions, exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C or 2° warming targets during this century. While avoiding further CO<inf>2</inf> emissions remains the most effective way to prevent environmental destabilization, interest is growing in climate interventions—deliberate, large-scale manipulations of the environment aimed at reducing global warming. These include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to reduce atmospheric CO<inf>2</inf> concentrations over time, and solar radiation modification (SRM), which reflects sunlight to lower surface temperatures but does not address root CO<inf>2</inf> causes. The effects of these interventions on marine ecosystems, both direct and in combination with ongoing climate change, remain highly uncertain. Given the ocean's central role in regulating Earth's climate and supporting global food security, understanding these potential effects is crucial. This review provides an overview of proposed intervention methodologies for marine CDR and SRM and outlines the potential trade-offs and knowledge gaps associated with their impacts on marine ecosystems. Climate interventions have the potential to reduce warming-driven impacts, but could also alter marine food systems, biodiversity and ecosystem function. Effects will vary by pathway, scale, and regional context. Pathway-specific impact assessments are thus crucial to quantify trade-offs between plausible intervention scenarios as well as to identify their expected impacts on marine ecosystems in order to prioritize scaling efforts for low-risk pathways and avoid high-risk scenariosKER and CSH were supported by LSU, NOAA, and NSF award 2218777. TR is an ARC DECRA Recipient (DE240100115) funded by the Australian Government. MR is supported by funding to UCSB from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment. MSD is supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office Earth's Radiation Budget (ERB), Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, & Climate (AC4), and Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Programs, Grant NA23OAR4310297. Support for KOC was provided by Schmidt Sciences, LLC. KK is supported by NOAA NOPP Grants NA23OAR0170515 and NA23OAR0170514. Support for BK was provided in part by NOAA's Climate Program Office, Earth's Radiation Budget (ERB) (Grant NA22OAR4310479), and the Indiana University Environmental Resilience Institute. Support for KER and DV was partly provided by the Quadrature Climate Foundation. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the US Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. NSL acknowledges support from NSF (OCE-1752724). AR is supported by NSF Grant AGS-2017113. CP was supported by NOAA CPO MAPP NA20OAR4310438, NA20OAR4310441 and NA20OAR4310442. MC and JS were supported by the Spanish funded ProOceans (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Proyectos de I + D + I, RETOS-PID2020-118097RB-I00), and MC was supported by GES4SEAS (European Union's Horizon 2020 research under grant agreement no. 101059877) project and the “Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence” accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). Support for HO is provided by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR's Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) under the NOAA Science Collaboration Program Award NA23OAR4310383BPeer reviewedAmerican Geophysical UnionAgencia Estatal de Investigación (España)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)Indiana UniversityAustralian GovernmentGrantham FoundationSchmidt SciencesQuadrature Climate FoundationDepartment of Energy (US)National Science Foundation (US)Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)European Commission0000-0001-8422-632X0000-0001-6599-80680000-0003-4953-99660000-0003-2147-59210000-0002-7342-21890000-0001-6318-11500000-0003-3253-04550000-0002-6621-08580000-0002-4228-82470000-0002-1182-28490000-0001-9296-75660000-0002-0814-75550000-0002-8652-99700000-0002-8951-27870000-0002-8980-056X0000-0002-6769-59570000-0001-5893-10090000-0002-0032-93700000-0002-8994-79670000-0002-6319-56560000-0002-7878-80750000-0003-4544-947X202620262026info:eu-repo/semantics/articlePublisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/431478https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105027392391reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-118097RB-I00info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101059877Reviews of Geophysicshttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024RG000876Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:dnet:digitalcsic_::91bd43b8e56be8ebd3ecc48835eeb98c2026-05-22T06:33:51Z
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Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems

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