Measuring inflation persistence in Brazil using a multivariate model
We estimate inflation persistence in Brazil in a multivariate framework of unobserved components, accounting for the following sources affecting inflation persistence: Deviations of expectations from the actual policy target; persistence of the factors driving inflation; and the usual intrinsic meas...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2014 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
| Repositorio: | Revista Brasileira de Economia (Online) |
| Idioma: | portugués |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ojs.periodicos.fgv.br:article/7524 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/7524 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Inflation persistence inflation expectations Kalman filter Bayesian analysis |
| Sumario: | We estimate inflation persistence in Brazil in a multivariate framework of unobserved components, accounting for the following sources affecting inflation persistence: Deviations of expectations from the actual policy target; persistence of the factors driving inflation; and the usual intrinsic measure of persistence, evaluated through lagged inflation terms. Data on inflation, output and interest rates are decomposed into unobserved components. To simplify the estimation of a great number of unknown variables, we employ Bayesian analysis. Our results indicate that expectations-based persistence matters considerably for inflation persistence in Brazil. |
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