Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro

This work aims to extract implicit default probabilities curves from Brazilian´s debentures market. This process occurs in two steps. First challenge is to obtain the term structure of Brazilian’s debentures. Diebold and Li (2006) proposed a revision of Nelson and Siegel (1987) parametrical model. T...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Fernandez, Paulo Ramiro S.
Tipo de recurso: tesis de maestría
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2014
País:Brasil
Institución:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
Repositorio:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/12052
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10438/12052
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Default
Debêntures
ETTJ
Probabilidade implícita
Brasil
Spread
LGD
Economia
Mercado financeiro
Risco (Economia)
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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro
title Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro
spellingShingle Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro
Fernandez, Paulo Ramiro S.
Default
Debêntures
ETTJ
Probabilidade implícita
Brasil
Spread
LGD
Economia
Mercado financeiro
Debêntures
Risco (Economia)
title_short Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro
title_full Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro
title_fullStr Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro
title_full_unstemmed Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro
title_sort Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Fernandez, Paulo Ramiro S.
author Fernandez, Paulo Ramiro S.
author_facet Fernandez, Paulo Ramiro S.
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EPGE
dc.contributor.affiliation.none.fl_str_mv FGV
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Guillen, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho
Araújo, Gustavo Silva
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Vicente, José Valentim Machado
contributor_str_mv Vicente, José Valentim Machado
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Default
Debêntures
ETTJ
Probabilidade implícita
Brasil
topic Default
Debêntures
ETTJ
Probabilidade implícita
Brasil
Spread
LGD
Economia
Mercado financeiro
Debêntures
Risco (Economia)
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Spread
LGD
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Mercado financeiro
Debêntures
Risco (Economia)
description This work aims to extract implicit default probabilities curves from Brazilian´s debentures market. This process occurs in two steps. First challenge is to obtain the term structure of Brazilian’s debentures. Diebold and Li (2006) proposed a revision of Nelson and Siegel (1987) parametrical model. To extract the term structure of Brazilian´s debentures, Diebold and Li (2006) work was used as guidance. The second step consists in extract the default probability using the reduced form model proposed by Duffie and Singleton (1999). Some assumptions were considered, such as loss fraction rate as a constant. The same assumption was considered by Xu and Nencioni (2000). Moreover, the exponential decay rate was fixed as suggested by Araújo (2012). The exercise was replied in three distinguished dates during the Brazilian interest rate reduction cycle. One of the results from this work was that the market agents considered a reduction on the default probability during the reduction cycle. The reduction in short term was greater than long term.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2014-09-25T11:31:51Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2014-09-25T11:31:51Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2014-05-30
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv FERNANDEZ, Paulo Ramiro S.. Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2014.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10438/12052
identifier_str_mv FERNANDEZ, Paulo Ramiro S.. Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2014.
url https://hdl.handle.net/10438/12052
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron:FGV
instname_str Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
instacron_str FGV
institution FGV
reponame_str Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
collection Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)
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spelling Escolas::EPGEFGVGuillen, Osmani Teixeira de CarvalhoAraújo, Gustavo SilvaVicente, José Valentim Machado2014-09-25T11:31:51Z2014-09-25T11:31:51Z2014-05-30FERNANDEZ, Paulo Ramiro S.. Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro. Dissertação (Mestrado em Finanças e Economia Empresarial) - Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia, Fundação Getúlio Vargas - FGV, Rio de Janeiro, 2014.https://hdl.handle.net/10438/12052This work aims to extract implicit default probabilities curves from Brazilian´s debentures market. This process occurs in two steps. First challenge is to obtain the term structure of Brazilian’s debentures. Diebold and Li (2006) proposed a revision of Nelson and Siegel (1987) parametrical model. To extract the term structure of Brazilian´s debentures, Diebold and Li (2006) work was used as guidance. The second step consists in extract the default probability using the reduced form model proposed by Duffie and Singleton (1999). Some assumptions were considered, such as loss fraction rate as a constant. The same assumption was considered by Xu and Nencioni (2000). Moreover, the exponential decay rate was fixed as suggested by Araújo (2012). The exercise was replied in three distinguished dates during the Brazilian interest rate reduction cycle. One of the results from this work was that the market agents considered a reduction on the default probability during the reduction cycle. The reduction in short term was greater than long term.O trabalho busca através de um exercício empírico, extrair as curvas de probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures brasileiras. A construção ocorre em duas etapas. O primeiro desafio é obter as estruturas a termo das debêntures brasileiras. Foi utilizada a revisão proposta por Diebold e Li (2006) do modelo de Nelson Siegel (1987) para construç o das ETTJs. A segunda etapa consiste em extrair a probabilidade de default utilizado a forma reduzida do modelo de Duffie e Singleton (1999). A fração de perda em caso de default foi considerada constante conforme estudo de Xu e Nencioni (2000). A taxa de decaimento também foi mantida constante conforme proposto por Diebold e Li (2006) e Araújo (2012). O exercício foi replicado para três datas distintas durante o ciclo de redução de juros no Brasil. Dentre os resultados desse estudo identificou-se que os agentes do mercado reduziram a probabilidade de default dos emissores durante esse período. 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