Estimating implied volatility surfaces using Bayesian splines under shape restrictions

This work develops a statistical model for estimating implied volatility surfaces, using information about the expectations of market agents contained in the market prices of options. The implied volatility curves are estimated by shape-constrained splines, using a Bayesian method (MCMC) that impose...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor: Piantino, Guilherme José Lemos
Formato: tesis de maestría
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:Brasil
Recursos:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Repositorio:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:teses.usp.br:tde-06102023-094338
Acesso em linha:https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-06102023-094338/
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Bayesian methods
Implied volatility
Método bayesiano
Options pricing
Regressão via splines
Splines regression
Volatilidade implícita
Descrição
Resumo:This work develops a statistical model for estimating implied volatility surfaces, using information about the expectations of market agents contained in the market prices of options. The implied volatility curves are estimated by shape-constrained splines, using a Bayesian method (MCMC) that imposes no-arbitrage conditions on the price curve using shape restrictions.