Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms

Retail companies, as production systems, must use their resources efficiently and make strategic decisions to obtain growing and stable revenues, especially when market conditions are becoming more competitive and profit margins are increasingly pressured. Thus, sales forecasting is crucial to maint...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Martins, Emerson, Galegale, Napoleão Verardi
Tipo de documento: artigo
Estado:Versão publicada
Data de publicação:2023
País:Brasil
Recursos:Sindicato das Secretárias do Estado de São Paulo (SINSESP)
Repositório:GeSec
Idioma:inglês
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs2.revistagesec.org.br:article/1670
Acesso em linha:https://ojs.revistagesec.org.br/secretariado/article/view/1670
Access Level:Acceso aberto
Palavra-chave:Sales Forecast
Retail
Machine Learning
Time Series
Productive Systems
Previsão de Vendas
Varejo
Aprendizado de Máquina
Séries Temporais
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oai_identifier_str oai:ojs2.revistagesec.org.br:article/1670
network_acronym_str BR
network_name_str Brasil
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms
Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms
title Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms
spellingShingle Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms
Martins, Emerson
Sales Forecast
Retail
Machine Learning
Time Series
Productive Systems
Previsão de Vendas
Varejo
Aprendizado de Máquina
Séries Temporais
title_short Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms
title_full Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms
title_fullStr Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms
title_full_unstemmed Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms
title_sort Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithms
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Martins, Emerson
Galegale, Napoleão Verardi
author Martins, Emerson
author_facet Martins, Emerson
Galegale, Napoleão Verardi
author_role author
author2 Galegale, Napoleão Verardi
author2_role author
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Sales Forecast
Retail
Machine Learning
Time Series
Productive Systems
Previsão de Vendas
Varejo
Aprendizado de Máquina
Séries Temporais
topic Sales Forecast
Retail
Machine Learning
Time Series
Productive Systems
Previsão de Vendas
Varejo
Aprendizado de Máquina
Séries Temporais
description Retail companies, as production systems, must use their resources efficiently and make strategic decisions to obtain growing and stable revenues, especially when market conditions are becoming more competitive and profit margins are increasingly pressured. Thus, sales forecasting is crucial to maintain competitiveness in the retail segment, but obtaining inaccurate forecasts can lead to stock shortages, causing delays in deliveries and generating customer dissatisfaction, as well as increasing inventory, increasing the cost of warehousing, forcing the “burn” of stock through promotional campaigns, directly affecting profitability. Forecasting the demand for products and services and adapting the supply chain by finding a balance has always been and will continue to be a challenge in the retail segment. This research aims to evaluate the main methods and identify the one with the greatest accuracy in sales prediction. Based on an integrative literature review (ILR), three main methods were evaluated: time series, artificial neural networks and machine learning algorithms. The results show that machine learning is more suitable in terms of accuracy, particularly when models contain exogenous and endogenous variables, in addition to allowing the identification of hidden patterns in demand that can be used to identify market trends. However, in markets with constant demands and few external interferences, its use is not justified because, for these cases, the use of time series is simpler and less costly.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-07-19
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://ojs.revistagesec.org.br/secretariado/article/view/1670
10.7769/gesec.v14i7.1670
url https://ojs.revistagesec.org.br/secretariado/article/view/1670
identifier_str_mv 10.7769/gesec.v14i7.1670
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://ojs.revistagesec.org.br/secretariado/article/view/1670/1341
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Emerson Martins, Napoleão Verardi Galegale
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Emerson Martins, Napoleão Verardi Galegale
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Revista de Gestão e Secretariado
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Revista de Gestão e Secretariado
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista de Gestão e Secretariado (Management and Administrative Professional Review); Vol. 14 No. 7 (2023): Revista de Gestão e Secretariado v.14, n.7, 2023; 11294-11308
Revista de Gestão e Secretariado; Vol. 14 Núm. 7 (2023): Revista de Gestão e Secretariado v.14, n.7, 2023; 11294-11308
Revista de Gestão e Secretariado; v. 14 n. 7 (2023): Revista de Gestão e Secretariado v.14, n.7, 2023; 11294-11308
2178-9010
reponame:GeSec
instname:Sindicato das Secretárias do Estado de São Paulo (SINSESP)
instacron:SINSESP
instname_str Sindicato das Secretárias do Estado de São Paulo (SINSESP)
instacron_str SINSESP
institution SINSESP
reponame_str GeSec
collection GeSec
repository.name.fl_str_mv GeSec - Sindicato das Secretárias do Estado de São Paulo (SINSESP)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv editor@revistagesec.org.br | gestoreditorial@revistagesec.org.br | rf.sabino@gmail.com
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spelling Sales forecasting using machine learning algorithmsSales forecasting using machine learning algorithmsSales ForecastRetailMachine LearningTime SeriesProductive SystemsPrevisão de VendasVarejoAprendizado de MáquinaSéries TemporaisRetail companies, as production systems, must use their resources efficiently and make strategic decisions to obtain growing and stable revenues, especially when market conditions are becoming more competitive and profit margins are increasingly pressured. Thus, sales forecasting is crucial to maintain competitiveness in the retail segment, but obtaining inaccurate forecasts can lead to stock shortages, causing delays in deliveries and generating customer dissatisfaction, as well as increasing inventory, increasing the cost of warehousing, forcing the “burn” of stock through promotional campaigns, directly affecting profitability. Forecasting the demand for products and services and adapting the supply chain by finding a balance has always been and will continue to be a challenge in the retail segment. This research aims to evaluate the main methods and identify the one with the greatest accuracy in sales prediction. Based on an integrative literature review (ILR), three main methods were evaluated: time series, artificial neural networks and machine learning algorithms. The results show that machine learning is more suitable in terms of accuracy, particularly when models contain exogenous and endogenous variables, in addition to allowing the identification of hidden patterns in demand that can be used to identify market trends. However, in markets with constant demands and few external interferences, its use is not justified because, for these cases, the use of time series is simpler and less costly.Retail companies, as production systems, must use their resources efficiently and make strategic decisions to obtain growing and stable revenues, especially when market conditions are becoming more competitive and profit margins are increasingly pressured. Thus, sales forecasting is crucial to maintain competitiveness in the retail segment, but obtaining inaccurate forecasts can lead to stock shortages, causing delays in deliveries and generating customer dissatisfaction, as well as increasing inventory, increasing the cost of warehousing, forcing the “burn” of stock through promotional campaigns, directly affecting profitability. Forecasting the demand for products and services and adapting the supply chain by finding a balance has always been and will continue to be a challenge in the retail segment. This research aims to evaluate the main methods and identify the one with the greatest accuracy in sales prediction. Based on an integrative literature review (ILR), three main methods were evaluated: time series, artificial neural networks and machine learning algorithms. The results show that machine learning is more suitable in terms of accuracy, particularly when models contain exogenous and endogenous variables, in addition to allowing the identification of hidden patterns in demand that can be used to identify market trends. However, in markets with constant demands and few external interferences, its use is not justified because, for these cases, the use of time series is simpler and less costly.Revista de Gestão e Secretariado2023-07-19info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://ojs.revistagesec.org.br/secretariado/article/view/167010.7769/gesec.v14i7.1670Revista de Gestão e Secretariado (Management and Administrative Professional Review); Vol. 14 No. 7 (2023): Revista de Gestão e Secretariado v.14, n.7, 2023; 11294-11308Revista de Gestão e Secretariado; Vol. 14 Núm. 7 (2023): Revista de Gestão e Secretariado v.14, n.7, 2023; 11294-11308Revista de Gestão e Secretariado; v. 14 n. 7 (2023): Revista de Gestão e Secretariado v.14, n.7, 2023; 11294-113082178-9010reponame:GeSecinstname:Sindicato das Secretárias do Estado de São Paulo (SINSESP)instacron:SINSESPenghttps://ojs.revistagesec.org.br/secretariado/article/view/1670/1341Copyright (c) 2023 Emerson Martins, Napoleão Verardi Galegaleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMartins, EmersonGalegale, Napoleão Verardi2023-07-20T11:03:31Zoai:ojs2.revistagesec.org.br:article/1670Revistahttps://www.revistagesec.org.br/ONGhttps://ojs.revistagesec.org.br/secretariado/oaieditor@revistagesec.org.br | gestoreditorial@revistagesec.org.br | rf.sabino@gmail.com2178-90102178-9010opendoar:2023-07-20T11:03:31GeSec - Sindicato das Secretárias do Estado de São Paulo (SINSESP)false
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