The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia
Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emi...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) |
| Repositorio: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.ufmg.br:1843/52341 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay1632 http://hdl.handle.net/1843/52341 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8952-7025 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7470-0697 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7703-946X https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7793-3218 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2226-1124 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9190-1132 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1117-9849 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8102-5901 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4877-5414 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Wildfires Fire spread model Amazon Amazon fire Queimada Amazônia Queimada - Aspectos econômicos - Amazônia |
| Sumario: | Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region’s forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests. |
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