Testando a hipótese de ciclos eleitorais racionais nas eleições dos municípios paulistas

The purpose of this paper is, considering the theoretical approach proposed by Rogoff & Si-bert (1988) and Rogoff (1990), to attempt to find out evidences of rational budget cycles in São Paulo state municipalities, between 1989 and 2001, by using panel data and binary dependent variable (probit...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor: Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko
Tipo de documento: artigo
Estado:Versão publicada
Data de publicação:2005
País:Brasil
Recursos:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Repositório:Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo)
Idioma:português
OAI Identifier:oai:revistas.usp.br:article/35843
Acesso em linha:https://www.revistas.usp.br/ee/article/view/35843
Access Level:Acceso aberto
Palavra-chave:ciclos eleitorais
orçamento público municipal
dados em painel
modelos probit^i1^slo
electoral cycles
public municipal budget
panel data
probit^i2^slogit mod
Descrição
Resumo:The purpose of this paper is, considering the theoretical approach proposed by Rogoff & Si-bert (1988) and Rogoff (1990), to attempt to find out evidences of rational budget cycles in São Paulo state municipalities, between 1989 and 2001, by using panel data and binary dependent variable (probit and logit) econometric models. Evidences of positive expenditure impulses in electoral years were found for those unities and, although the results for 2000 are different from the results obtained for 1992 and 1996, there is no acceptance of the hypothesis of voters' rationality in the way predicted by the rational opportunistic cycle theory.