WHAT WILL THE MUNICIPAL ELECTION BE LIKE? Crisis, Covid-19 and the voter

The possible characteristics of the forthcoming municipal election will be presented in this article. Using the explanation by mechanisms and construction of scenarios, we provide clarity to the coming dispute. Three variables are considered for construction of scenarios: 1)Polarization / Nationaliz...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor: Oliveira, Adriano
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:Brasil
Recursos:Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT)
Repositorio:Revista Observatório
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.revista.uft.edu.br:article/10564
Acesso em linha:https://sistemas.uft.edu.br/periodicos/index.php/observatorio/article/view/10564
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Eleição municipal
Comportamento do eleitor
Análise prospectiva
Covid-19
Descrição
Resumo:The possible characteristics of the forthcoming municipal election will be presented in this article. Using the explanation by mechanisms and construction of scenarios, we provide clarity to the coming dispute. Three variables are considered for construction of scenarios: 1)Polarization / Nationalization; 2) Political and economic crisis; 3) Covid-19. The possible effects on the voter of these three causal variables are presented. This article reveals the importance of using the conjuncture analysis, the construction of scenarios and the prospective analysis to explain the voter's behavior.