The effect of education on the demographic dividend: an analysis of the Brazilian case
The demographic dividend has aroused interest among demographers and economists because it is seen as a window of oportunity for the economic development of countries that have experienced a demographic transition. There are reasons to question the sole virtuosity of the pure demographic dividend in...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Estado: | Versão publicada |
| Data de publicação: | 2020 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Recursos: | Associação Brasileira de Estudos Populacionais (ABEP) |
| Repositório: | Revista brasileira de estudos de população (Online) |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ojs.rebep.org.br:article/1429 |
| Acesso em linha: | https://rebep.org.br/revista/article/view/1429 |
| Access Level: | Acceso aberto |
| Palavra-chave: | Demographic dividend National Transfer Account (NTA) Education Dividendo demográfico Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias (CNT) Educación Contas Nacionais de Transferência (CNT) Educação |
| Resumo: | The demographic dividend has aroused interest among demographers and economists because it is seen as a window of oportunity for the economic development of countries that have experienced a demographic transition. There are reasons to question the sole virtuosity of the pure demographic dividend in economic growth. Crespo-Cuaresma et al. (2014) found that educational expansion has an important role in economic gains during the demographic dividend. To verify these results for the Brazilian case, we performed a decomposition exercise of economic support ratio (ESR), an alternative to demographic dependency ratio, to analyze the first demographic dividend. A simulation, applied for the period from 1970 to 2100 considering three scenarios of educational expansion, shows that educational expansion was and will be responsible for a big share of the economic gains of the Brazilian demographic dividend period, outperforming the change in age structure effect. In addition, an increase in a work-age population with post-secondary education appears to potentialize these results. |
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