Análise e Controle Ótimo da COVID-19 no Brasil usando Modelo Epidemiológico SI Intervalar

The objective of this paper is to provide possible scenarios for the evolution of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) from the application of optimal control strategies. Provided that data on the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) are fraught of uncertainty or even lack of information, interval mathematic...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Campos, J. R., Pena, I. Da S., Silva, G. N. [UNESP], Lodwick, W. A.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:Brasil
Institución:Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
Repositorio:Repositório Institucional da UNESP
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.unesp.br:11449/299680
Acceso en línea:http://dx.doi.org/10.5540/tcam.2024.025.e01470
https://hdl.handle.net/11449/299680
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:COVID-19
interval SI epidemiological model
interval optimal control problem
constrained interval arithmetic
decision-making
modelo epidemiológico SI intervalar
controle ótimo intervalar
aritmética intervalar restrita
tomada de decisão
Descripción
Sumario:The objective of this paper is to provide possible scenarios for the evolution of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) from the application of optimal control strategies. Provided that data on the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) are fraught of uncertainty or even lack of information, interval mathematical models are feasible for the study of epidemiological models related to COVID-19. Thus, the interval SI epidemiological model and the corresponding interval optimal control problem were proposed. The solution of the interval optimal control problem illustrates pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil. Two decision-making criterias under uncertainty have been considered and they can assist the decision making process by public health workers. Both criterias take into account costs associated with the decision-making.