FORECASTING ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN BRAZILIAN RURAL AREAS: A BOX-JENKINS APPROACH

The aim of this work is to predict the consumption of electric energy in the Brazilian rural area for the short term, using the time series model of Box-Jenkins, in its univariate form. The series of electricity consumption data corresponds to the period 1996 to 2020, distributed quarterly. Among th...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Santos, Regina Ávila, Moreno, Mateus Hurbano Bomfim, Dutra, Ítalo João Bolqui
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:Brasil
Institución:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)
Repositorio:Organizações Rurais & Agroindustriais (Online)
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:www.revista.dae.ufla.br:article/1844
Acceso en línea:https://www.revista.dae.ufla.br/index.php/ora/article/view/1844
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Eletrificação rural
séries temporais
zona rural
Rural electrification
times series
rural environment
Descripción
Sumario:The aim of this work is to predict the consumption of electric energy in the Brazilian rural area for the short term, using the time series model of Box-Jenkins, in its univariate form. The series of electricity consumption data corresponds to the period 1996 to 2020, distributed quarterly. Among the results, it was found that the model is well adjusted and predicts, for the short term, successive increases in energy consumption in rural areas. This reflects the non-decrease in the productive pace in Brazilian agribusiness and the resilience of rural family production.