A Comparison of Two Techniques for Next- Day Electricity Price Forecasting

In the framework of competitive markets, the market’s participants need energy price forecasts in order to determine their optimal bidding strategies and maximize their benefits. Therefore, if generation companies have a good accuracy in forecasting hourly prices they can reduce the risk of over/und...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Troncoso Lora, Alicia, Riquelme Santos, Jesús Manuel, Riquelme Santos, José Cristóbal, Gómez Expósito, Antonio, Martínez Ramos, José Luis
Formato: capítulo de livro
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2002
País:España
Recursos:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/39155
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/11441/39155
https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-45675-9_57
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Artificial Intelligence (incl. Robotics)
Data Structures
Cryptology and Information Theory
Information Storage and Retrieval
Information Systems Applications (incl. Internet)
Pattern Recognition
Database Management
Descrição
Resumo:In the framework of competitive markets, the market’s participants need energy price forecasts in order to determine their optimal bidding strategies and maximize their benefits. Therefore, if generation companies have a good accuracy in forecasting hourly prices they can reduce the risk of over/underestimating the income obtained by selling energy. This paper presents and compares two energy price forecasting tools for day-ahead electricity market: a k Weighted Nearest Neighbours (kWNN) the weights being estimated by a genetic algorithm and a Dynamic Regression (DR). Results from realistic cases based on Spanish electricity market energy price forecasting are reported.