Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyz...
| Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | article |
| Publication Date: | 2022 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repository: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Language: | English |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/366505 |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/366505 https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Precipitation forecasting Climate science Climate prediction Extreme events Precipitation Climate change Climate records Canvis climàtics Simulació per ordinador Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia |
| Summary: | Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming. |
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